Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Statistical
Table
Scenario BIT-MESSAGE
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.3 17.0 27.6 41.6 56.7 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.6 12.8 20.1 30.6 44.0 57.8 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 11 11 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 4 4 5 7 6 4 3 1 1
1 1
Liquids 17 22 37 53 72 82 90 83 72 59 42 33
Gas 4 6 10 15 24 36 40 39 34 22 19 16
Electricity 3 5 9 18 29 42 55 68 71 72 68 62
Others 0 1 3 7 12 19 27 34 46 56 61 56
Total 39 49 73 106 149 190 219 228 224 210 190 168
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 4 8 11 15 18 11 5 2 2 1 2
Oil 21 30 40 50 64 65 66 55 42 32 22 15
Gas 8 12 23 39 68 96 98 101 ' 76 62 56 60
Nuclear 0 0 1 2 4 5 7 8 8 6 5 7
Biomass 14 14 17 24 30 37 47 48 53 46 32 27
Other Renewables 2 4 7 14 21 37 70 106 148 176 186 165
Total 49 65 96 140 201 259 300 322 328 322 302 275
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.9
Gas 0.0 O.l 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.4 59.6 84.3 112.4 141.9 168.5 189.6 204.9 216.3 225.5
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382
Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 93 121 124 127 124 116 107
Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1862
1880
Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 1461 1432 1403 1379 1361 1342
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 ^ GtC 0.72 1.01 1.46 1.98 2.76 3.27 3.09 2.69 1.94 1.50 1.22 1.16
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.62 0.38 -0.19 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.19 -0.20 -0.24 -0.29
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.08 2.36 2.57 3.05 2.85 2.47 1.75 1.31 0.97 0.87
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 98 112 133 151 1.59 154 148 132 110 89
N20 total « MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 14.1 13.1 11.4 9.0 7.1 5.4 4.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96
89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 434 475 522 568 588 564 538 473 412 387
NMVOC Mt 48 55 64 72 80 83 81 68 54 41 33 28
NOx MtN 7 8 10 13 16 19 19 18 14 11 10
8
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
b;C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-B 1 emulation run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation ran.