Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Open Process 373
Table VI-4d: Standardized GHG emissions for the preliminary B2 marker (MESSAGE) as posted on the CIESIN web page
(sres.ciesin.org) during the open process. These data are not necessarily identical with the final marker scenarios.
Preliminary 82 Marker Scenario - WORLD (Open process version, date of submission: 11/2/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 5262 7672 9367 10414
GNP/GDP (тех) in Trillion US$90 ' 20.9 50.7 109.5 234.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) in Trillion (1990 prices) ^ 25.7 60.2 113.9 231.8
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 38.4 23.9 10.7 6.8
Solids 42.2 35.8 19.4 7.0
Liquids 110.9 200.1 267.9 294.0
Gas 40.9 58.7 104.9 111.2
Electricity 34.7 85.1 188.2 409.0
Other (e.g. H2) 7.8 25.4 63.2 123.2
Total 274.9 429.0 654.3 951.2
Primary Energy by Fuel
Coal 91.1 98.3 85.6 300.2
Oil 128.3 214.3 227.1 51.9
Gas 70.5 150.3 297.4 336.6
Nuclear 7.3 15.6 47.6 142.0
Biomass 46.0 52.6 104.7 316.0
Other Renewables 8.1 34.4 107.2 211.8
Total 351.3 565.5 869.6 1358.5
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
Coal 0.0 2.8 5.7 12.6
Oil 0.0 5.1 12.0 19.5
Gas 0.0 2.7 8.6 26.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC ^ 0.0 215.1 519.6 1129.2
Land Use in Million ha
Forests 4249.5 3775.9 3906.7 4121.7
Grasslands 3289.8 3766.0 4014.4 3988.9
Cropland 1436.6 1583.4 1403.5 1113.2
Energy Biomass 0.0 15.5 497.9 717.7
Other 3966.4 3801.4 3119.7 3000.7
Total 12942.2 12942.2 12942.2 12942.2
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)''
CO2 (as C)b in GtC 6.5 9.4 11.6 14.2
Other CO2 (as in GtC 1.0 1.4 -0.4 -0.2
Total CO2 (as C) in GtC 7.5 10.7 11.2 14.0
CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH^ 318.3 447.6 538.1 508.6
N2O total (as N) in Mt N,0-N 6.3 6.8 5.6 4.7
SO^ total (as S) in MtS 69.0 59.0 51.9 43.0
CO (as CO) in Mt CO 974.4 Í216.8 1356.0 2072.2
VOCs in Mt 177.5 233.9 259.1 212.4
NO^ (as N) in MtN 31.0 46.3 56.6 63.4
" тех = market exchange rate; ppp= purchasing power parity
'' CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data).
^ Land-use data taken from AIM B2 emulation run.
Other non-energy emissions categories were calculated based on AIM 82 land-use change estimates and/or AIM B2 non-energy emissions.
" COj emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 emulation ran)
Note: Subtotals may not add due to independent rounding.