Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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566 Statistical Table Scenario B2-MiniCAM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5293 6147 7009 7880 9304 9874 10216 10453 10585 10501 10418 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 36.3 47.4 62.1 80.3 102.0 127.9 156.0 186.3 219.2 255.1 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 55 67 79 90 97 103 85 75 73 73 72 121 121 127 140 138 156 192 228 264 300 327 355 52 60 73 91 101 107 109 118 132 152 157 162 35 51 73 102 137 181 234 292 352 413 470 527 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 253 286 339 411 465 541 637 723 823 937 1027 1117 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Bionrass EJ 88 110 128 143 176 201 218 191 175 170 169 167 131 130 134 145 134 147 185 228 270 309 338 367 70 81 111 159 186 209 229 260 292 325 330 335 24 24 28 34 46 62 82 93 105 120 150 181 0 5 10 15 19 24 28 38 43 45 44 43 Other Renewables Total 24 24 32 47 65 88 116 155 195 234 255 275 336 375 443 542 626 731 858 965 1080 1203 1286 1370 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.2 9.3 11.2 13.1 14.8 16.5 18.2 0.1 1.4 2.8 4.1 5.5 7.0 8.6 10.8 13.3 16.1 19.4 22.7 0.1 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.9 6.9 9.1 11.6 14.4 17.4 20.7 24.0 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 166.7 263.6 373.5 492.4 619.7 754.8 895.8 1040.8 1187.8 1335.6 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1472 1473 1491 1526 1525 1493 1431 1295 1175 1070 988 906 3209 3347 3572 3885 4175 4393 4540 4391 4245 4101 4067 4033 0 2 4 6 6 7 8 22 25 16 10 4 4173 4214 4140 3952 3705 3547 3480 3818 4092 4304 4278 4252 4310 4128 3956 3795 3753 3724 3706 3639 3628 3673 3821 3970 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.86 9.11 10.24 11.35 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.03 1.38 1.27 0.92 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7,97 8.88 10.48 11.51 12.27 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 350 391 430 469 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7,0 8.0 9.1 10.4 11.9 SOx total MtS 70.9 69,0 76.6 80.6 85.2 87.1 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 12.73 13.29 0.45 0.56 13.18 13.85 498 499 13.2 13.7 86.4 71.9 346 413 107 120 79 14.11 0.23 14.34 509 14.4 59.0 483 128 74 15.20 -0.53 14.67 528 15.3 47.7 548 130 63 15.86 16.54 -1.13 -1.72 14.73 14,82 548 569 16.7 18.1 41.1 34.6 603 649 127 121 65 69
Statistical Table 567 Scenario B2.MiniCAM OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 838 907 958 993 1003 1024 1023 1013 1006 1002 1003 1004 GNP/GDP (mex) TriUion US$ 16.3 20.5 24.5 28.5 29.5 33.2 36.3 38.4 40.9 43.7 47.4 51.3 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 8 7 6 6 6 Liquids 72 69 66 63 57 47 49 49 50 52 53 55 Gas 27 34 42 50 50 48 45 44 45 49 49 49 Electricity 22 26 31 36 38 44 50 52 54 56 59 63 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 130 141 151 160 156 149 154 153 156 163 168 173 Primary Energy EJ Coal 40 43 40 31 32 35 37 33 30 29 28 27 Oil 76 73 69 64 56 42 44 44 45 47 49 51 Gas 34 43 59 79 79 76 73 72 72 75 74 73 Nuclear 20 15 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 16 20 Biomass 0 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 Other Renewables 12 11 12 15 15 18 19 22 25 28 30 32 Total 182 188 194 203 197 187 190 189 191 197 201 206 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1,9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 Oil 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.9 Gas 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 3,2 3.9 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.6 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.9 100.1 134.0 165.9 196.2 226.0 254.8 282.2 308.3 333.2 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 408 412 417 423 419 399 375 339 309 286 261 236 Grasslands 796 820 861 918 942 1002 1025 998 974 955 945 935 Energy Biomass 0 2 3 3 3 4 4 8 8 6 3 1 Forest 921 931 922 894 878 847 850 926 980 1014 1016 1018 Others 998 958 920 885 881 871 868 853 851 862 897 932 Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.28 3.26 3.16 2.98 3.02 2.90 2.86 2.88 2.90 2.91 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.19 0.17 0.07 0.00 0.03 -0.03 -0.21 -0.35 -0.49 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.39 3.45 3.33 3.05 3.02 2.94 2.82 2.68 2.55 2.42 CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 82 92 95 106 114 120 128 138 148 158 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 13.2 7.0 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.9 5,3 HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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514 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 550 and 551: 542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
Page 552 and 553: 544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
Page 560 and 561: 552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
Page 562 and 563: 554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
Page 564 and 565: 556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
Page 566 and 567: 558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
Page 570 and 571: 562 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 580 and 581: 572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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Page 584 and 585: 576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 586 and 587: 578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
Page 588 and 589: 580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591: 582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593: 584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
Page 594 and 595: 586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
Page 596 and 597: 588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
Page 598 and 599: 590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
Page 600 and 601: 592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
Page 602 and 603: 594 Glossary of Terms standards for
Page 605 and 606: XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Page 607: List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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