Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I I I I 1 1 I \ I I 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Figure SPM-5: Standardized (to common 1990 and 2000 values) global annual methane emissions for the SRES scenarios (in MtCH4/yr). The range of emissions by 2100 for the six scenario groups is indicated to the right. Illustrative (including marker) scenarios are highlighted. 25 Figure SPM-6: Standardized (to common 1990 and 2000 values) global annual nitrous oxides emissions for the SRES scenarios (in MtN/yr). The range of emissions by 2100 for the six scenario groups is indicated to the right. Illustrative (marker) scenarios are highlighted.
Summary for Policymakers 11 initial increases over the next two to three decades, global sulfur emissions in the SRES scenarios decrease (see Table SPM-lb), consistent with the findings of the 1995 <strong>IPCC</strong> scenario evaluation and recent peer-reviewed literature. Similar future GHG emissions can result from very different socio-economic developments, and similar developments of driving forces can result in different future emissions. Uncertainties in the future developments of key emission driving forces create large uncertainties in future emissions, even within the same socio-economic development paths. Therefore, emissions from each scenario family overlap substantially with emissions from other scenario families. The overlap implies that a given level of future emissions can arise from very different combinations of driving forces. Figures SPM-1, SPM-2, and SPM-3 show this for CO,. Convergence of regional per capita incomes can lead to either high or low GHG emissions. Tables SPM-la and SPM-lb indicate that there ai'e scenarios with high per capita incomes in all regions that lead to high COj emissions (e.g., in the highgrowth, fossil fuel intensive scenario group AlFI). They also indicate that there are scenarios with high per capita incomes that lead to low emissions (e.g., the AIT scenario group or the Bl scenario family). This suggests that in some cases other driving forces may have a greater inñuence on GHG emissions than income growth. How can the SRES scenarios be used? It is recommended that a range of SRES scenarios with a variety of assumptions regarding driving forces be used in any analysis. Thus more than one family should be used in most analyses. The six scenario groups - the three scenario families A2, Bl, and B2, plus three groups within the Al scenario family, AlB, AlFI, and AIT - and four cumulative emissions categories were developed as the smallest subsets of SRES scenarios that capture the range of uncertainties associated with driving forces and emissions. The important uncertainties ranging from driving forces to emissions may be different in different applications - for example climate modeling; assessment of impacts, vulnerability, mitigation, and adaptation options; and policy analysis. CHmate modelers may want to cover the range reflected by the cumulative emissions categories. To assess the robustness of options in terms of impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation may require scenarios with similar emissions but different socio-economic characteristics, as reflected by the six scenario groups. For mitigation analysis, variation in both emissions and socio-economic characteristics may be necessary. For analysis at the national or regional scale, the most appropriate scenarios may be those that best reflect specific circumstances and perspectives. There is no single most likely, "central", or "best-guess" scenario, either with respect to SRES scenarios or to the underlying scenario literature. Probabilities or likelihood are not assigned to individual SRES scenarios. None of the SRES scenarios represents an estimate of a central tendency for all driving forces or emissions, such as the mean or median, and none should be interpreted as such. The distribution of the scenarios provides a useful context for understanding the relative position of a scenario but does not represent the likelihood of its occurrence. The driving forces and emissions of each SRES scenario should be used together. To avoid internal inconsistencies, components of SRES scenarios should not be mixed. For example, the GHG emissions from one scenario and the SO2 emissions from another scenario, or the population from one and economic development path from another, should not be combined. While recognizing the inherent uncertainties in long-term projections^'^, the SRES scenarios may provide policymakers with a long-term context for near-term analysis. The modeling tools that have been used to develop these scenarios that focus on the century time scale are less suitable for analysis of near term (a decade or less) developments. When analyzing mitigation and adaptation options, the user should be aware that although no additional climate initiatives are included in the SRES scenarios, various changes have been assumed to occur that would require other interventions, such as those leading to reductions in sulfur emissions and significant penetration of new energy technologies. What future work on emissions scenarios would be useful? • Establishment of a program for on-going evaluations and comparisons of long-term emission scenarios, including a regularly updated scenario database; • Capacity building, particularly in developing countries, in the area of modeling tools and emissions scenarios; • Multiple storyline, multi-model approaches in future scenario analyses; • New research activities to assess future developments in key GHG driving forces in greater regional, subregional, and sectoral detail which allow for a clearer link between emissions scenarios and mitigation options; • Improved specification and data for, and integration of the ПОП-СО2 GHG and non-energy sectors, such as land use, land-use change and forestry, in models, as well as model inter-comparison to improve scenarios and analyses; • Integration into models emissions of particulate, hydrogen, or nitrate aerosol precursors, and processes, Confidence in the quantification of any scenario decreases substantially as the time horizon increases because the basis for the assumptions becomes increasingly speculative. This is why a set of scenarios was developed.
Page 2 and 3: E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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Page 6 and 7: Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
Page 8 and 9: Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
Page 10 and 11: C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
Page 12 and 13: 4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
Page 14 and 15: 6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
Page 16 and 17: 8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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Page 22 and 23: 14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
Page 24 and 25: 16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
Page 26 and 27: 18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
Page 28 and 29: Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
Page 30 and 31: CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
Page 32 and 33: 24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
Page 34 and 35: 26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
Page 36 and 37: 28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
Page 38 and 39: 30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
Page 40 and 41: 32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
Page 42 and 43: 34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
Page 44 and 45: 36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
Page 46 and 47: 38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
Page 48 and 49: 40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
Page 50 and 51: 42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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Page 58 and 59: 50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
Page 60 and 61: 52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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Page 64 and 65: 56 Technical Summary References: Al
Page 67 and 68: 1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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