Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
427
Scenario AIG-AIM
OF:CD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
16.4 20.4 25.2 31.1 38.3 45.7 54.7 64.7 76.7 90.1 105.2 122.8
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
6 ] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5
64 75 79 85 91 97 104 107 111 П5 120 125
25 34 39 43 47 53 59 65 71 76 80 83
22 28 32 36 42 49 57 67 77 86 96 105
0 0 0 0
127 147 159 173 189 209 229 248 266 284 301 318
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
41 42 43 39 33 34 35 32 29 28 27 27
76 92 98 106 112 121 131 127 124 125 130 136
34 51 60 68 75 90 108 120 134 147 158 170
5 7 10 14 19 20 20 23 26 30 34 38
6 I 0 0 2 6 14 24 40 53 55 57
Other Renewables 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 20 27 35 40 46
Total 167 199 216 233 251 282 322 346 380 416 443 473
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8
Oil 0.1 0.9 i.9 2.9 4.0 5.0 6.4 7.5 8.8 10.1 11.4 12.8
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.2 5.2 6.5 8.0 9.4 11.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.5 100.6 139.4 182.6 232.5 286.1 340.0 394.3 449.3 505.0
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 410 404 389 373 350 336 321 286 255 227 202 180
Grasslands 787 758 7,50 783 834 843 852 817 783 754 728 703
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 7 20 56 78 108 132 142 152
Forest 1056 1065 1103 1133 1176 1183 1190 I23I 1274 1312 1344 1378
Others 886 912 897 850 772 746 721 716 711 712 720 728
Total 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140
Anthi'opogemc Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.42 3.78 4.14 4.68 5.30 5.39 5.48 5.56 5.62 5.68
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.12 -0.05 -0.12 -0.05 0.04 -0.02 -0.07 -0.10 -0.08 -0.07
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.30 3.73 4.02 4.63 5.34 5.37 5.41 5.46 5.54 5.61
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 71 71 63 56 51 47 43 41 38
N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8
1.8
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 175 191 213 231 250 260 270 286 307 330
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 39 39 34 30 25 21 18 17 16
NOx MtN 13 12 12 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5