Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

432 Statistical Table
Scenario AIG-MESSAGE I99O 2OOO 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
OECD90
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.6 31.6 38.7 46.8 55.7 65.7 77.2 90.8 106.6 124.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.8 22.1 27.4 33.7 40.8 48.6 57.4 67.6 79.7 93.6 109.4
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 11 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 77 75 73 71 79 86 87 94 100 105
Gas 22 28 33 34 38 41 38 33 30 25 22 18
Electricity 22 28 35 45 58 73 89 106 124 139 153 165
Others 1 1 3 5 8 10 12 16 23 27 31 32
Total 124 138 153 162 178 195 218 241 264 284 305 321
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 38 38 45 52 57 55 40 26 20 19 17 15
Oil 72 84 83 75 67 64 76 80 82 91 99 99
Gas 33 45 55 66 78 87 101 118 140 139 156 162
Nuclear 6 7 8 10 15 26 41 53 59 68 68 74
Biomass 6 7 7 13 19 24 29 32 36 40 43 47
Other Renewables 4 5 9 12 16 22 28 35 44 49 54 57
Total 159 186 206 227 252 278 315 345 381 406 437 453
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.8 8.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.9 7.3 8.7 10.3
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 66.6 102.6 140.2 178.6 217.3 256.6 297.5 340.3 385.3 431.5
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 356 356 355
Grasslands 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 846
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88 81 75
Forest 1050 1053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 1061 1054 1050 1049 1048
Others 838 833 828 814 798 765 733 712 691 685 695 705
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 > GtC 2.83 3.20 3.49 3.67 3.84 3.87 3.93 3.96 4.17
Other C02 ' GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.05
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.52 3.69 3.84 3.84 3.89 3.97 4.22
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 73 73 77 81 79 75 73
N20 total ' MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 8.9 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.1
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 U 9 8 9 10 12
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13
CO MtCO 179 161 172 176 173 184 205 214 217
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 35 30 29 31 33 36
NOx MtN 13 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 14
4.28
0.06
4.34
66
2.3
3.4
124
13
16
228
39
15
4.61
0.04
4.65
62
2.3
4.9
125
14
18
236
43
17
4.58
0.01
4.59
56
2.3
5.8
125
16
20
234
44
18
Emissions coirelated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-A1 marker run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker ran),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken froin AIM-Al marker ran.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker ran.