Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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504 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-ASF ASIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 2780 3261 3572 3884 4073 4181 4220 4012 3913 3538 3033 2882 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion USS 1.6 3.4 6.7 12.5 20.5 37.9 46.6 60.0 68.2 94.3 115.9 124.2 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 24 41 55 64 50 36 22 18 15 12 10 8 Liquids 15 36 67 114 124 134 144 130 116 104 93 83 Gas 3 8 19 41 55 70 85 78 71 63 56 48 Electricity 6 13 23 36 68 100 133 149 165 167 155 143 Others Total 47 97 163 255 298 340 383 375 366 346 314 282 Primary Energy EJ Coal 36 65 88 116 154 193 232 201 170 141 112 83 Oil 19 45 85 134 110 86 62 38 13 1 0 0 Gas 4 10 27 56 89 121 L54 137 . 120 103 86 69 Nuclear 0 1 1 2 4 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 Biomass 0 0 0 5 18 30 43 54 65 72 76 80 Other Renewables 1 3 6 9 19 29 39 67 95 107 102 98 Total 61 124 207 323 395 466 537 504 470 429 381 333 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.5 7.6 9.7 11.6 13.1 14.4 15.3 Oil 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.3 6.6 7.7 8.6 9.4 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 48.1 96.8 166.3 249.5 341.8 431.8 508.5 572.7 626.1 669.6 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Antluopogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.15 1.78 3.38 5.63 7..54 8.51 9.48 8.21 6.93 5.81 4.83 3.86 Other C02 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.33 0.26 0.19 0.13 0.07 0.03 0.01 0.00 Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.72 6.02 7.87 8.77 9.67 8,34 7.00 5.84 4.85 3.86 CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 145 163 179 190 202 187 173 158 142 126 N20 total MtN20-N 2.3 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 5,1 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.9 SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 47.3 66.7 58.2 37.6 17.0 12,1 7.2 4.9 5.2 5.4 HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64 PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18 SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16 CO MtCO 235 270 363 438 537 549 561 521 482 445 411 376 NMVOC Mt 33 37 43 51 58 63 67 72 76 80 84 88 NOx MtN 7 9 16 25 31 33 35 30 25 20 17 14
Statistical Table 505 Scenario Bl-ASF ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1218 1519 1869 2218 2500 2851 2980 3023 3044 3013 2795 2727 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 2.5 4.0 6.7 11.3 18.0 32.0 38.9 50.9 58.2 83.3 107.4 117.1 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial Solids 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 11 11 10 10 10 Liquids 22 38 58 89 94 100 105 94 82 73 66 60 Gas 5 9 17 31 40 50 60 58 56 53 49 44 Electricity 4 7 12 20 31 42 54 71 88 98 101 103 Others Total 33 56 89 144 172 201 229 233 237 234 226 217 Primary Energy EJ Coal 5 9 14 21 41 61 81 79 77 71 61 51 Oil 25 43 67 102 90 77 65 43 21 8 5 1 Gas 8 13 23 42 60 79 97 92 87 80 72 64 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I Biomass 0 0 0 4 15 26 38 45 53 59 65 71 Other Renewables 2 3 5 7 10 14 18 35 53 63 67 71 Total 40 68 108 177 218 259 300 295 291 283 271 259 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.4 on 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.6 5.4 6.2 6.8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 39.6 70.3 109.4 152.2 197.1 238.5 270.9 295.1 312.9 325.1 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.74 2.79 3.37 3.66 3.95 3.24 2.53 1.91 1.36 0.81 Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.78 0.85 0.80 0.72 0.65 0.45 0.25 0.15 0.14 0.14 Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.52 3.64 4.17 4.38 4.59 3.69 2.78 2.06 1.50 0.95 CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 108 132 147 155 163 159 155 149 142 136 N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 15.2 25.4 28.5 23.8 19.1 15.4 11.7 9.8 9.6 9.4 HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89 PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14 CO MtCO 396 404 470 532 626 629 631 592 553 523 503 482 NMVOC Mt 48 55 63 77 92 103 113 128 143 159 176 193 NOx MtN 7 8 11 17 21 22 24 21 19 18 16 15
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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444 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 464 and 465: 456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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Page 520 and 521: 512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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