Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
525
Scenario Bl-MiniCAM
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766
GNP/GDP (mex) TrilUon USS 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 14.4 23.7 35.6 52.0 68.6 85.6 101.5 118.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) TriUion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 7 6 5 5 5
Liquids 17 19 23 28 33 41 52 60 67 73 76 80
Gas 5 6 9 13 18 21 22 22 23 24 25 27
Electricity 3 5 8 12 21 33 48 63 77 89 93 96
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 33 43 57 79 103 131 153 172 190 199 207
Primaiy Energy
EJ
Coal 4 5 6 8 14 18 21 18 15 13 13 13
Oil 20 20 23 29 33 42 54 62 69 75 79 83
Gas 7 8 13 20 30 38 42 44 46 46 48 49
Nuclear 0 2 3 4 8 11 14 15 14 13 14 14
Biomass 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 6
6
Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 15 24 39 59 77 94 89 85
Total 35 42 55 73 103 138 176 205 229 247 249 251
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.6 5.4
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.6
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 36.1 56.3 79.6 105.1 131.5 158.7 186.1 211.0 232.6 251.1
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
391 363 342 329 309 285 258 223 190 160 136 lU
1510 1594 1717 1879 2025 2123 2174 2043 1897 1733 1651 1568
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3641 3591 3493 3348 3218 3137 3105 3271 3453 3650 3756 3862
1957 1884 1813 1746 1733 1734 1750 1749 1771 1818 1902 1987
7499 7432 7366 7301 7285 7280 7286 7286 7311 7361 7445 7528
Antlu-opogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85
N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 2
PFC MtC eq. 4 4
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
1.15
0.68
1.83
90
1.7
13,0
16
5
5
1,38
0,82
2,20
102
2.2
13.4
28
6
1.77
0.71
2.47
116
2.9
13.3
42
7
12
2.13
0.49
2.62
126
3.6
12.8
64
8
17
2.48
0.18
2.65
131
4.2
12.0
98
9
22
2.55
0.24
2.79
131
4.6
9.0
102
11
24
2.62
0.06
2,67
132
5.0
6.7
102
11
21
2.67
-0.35
2.31
135
5.3
5.2
101
11
14
2.77
-0.76
2,01
141
6.0
4.8
96
12
14
2.87
-1.17
1,70
147
6.6
4.4
89
12
14