Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
417
Scenario AIC-MESSAGE
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 ¡089 1098 ¡108 ¡¡¡0
GNP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
16.4 20.6 25.6 31.6 38.7 46.8 55.7 65.7 77.2 90.8 106.6 ¡24.3
14.1 17.8 22.1 27.4 33.7 40.8 48.6 57.4 67.6 79.7 93.6 109.4
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 U 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
66 70 74 74 75 80 87 93 100 98 102 102
09 28 34 35 39 37 34 29 30 27 21 15
99 29 36 44 53 61 75 90 ¡06 ¡24 141 ¡58
1 1 4 8 11 18 24 30 34 37 42 47
124 1-38 155 164 181 197 220 242 269 285 306 322
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
38 46 57 69 80 91 97 102 ¡25 ¡44 183 223
72 83 81 72 60 46 39 34 29 20 15 12
33 41 50 60 70 69 75 75 83 75 59 37
6 7 8 10 13 27 41 56 59 64 65 60
6 7 6 7 10 14 20 25 28 33 39 44
Other Renewables
Total
4 5 9 12 15 19 26 37 44 48 54 58
159 188 211 228 249 267 299 329 368 383 414 435
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.8 9.6 11.9
0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 3,7 4,2 4.6 4.9 5.2 5,4 5.6
0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2,6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.4 7.0
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
2.8 33.0 67.0 104.2 143.6 184,0 225,0 267.9 315.8 368.8 427,3 493.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use '
Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 3.56 356
760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849
847
0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88
Я 1
1050 ¡053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 0 I
1061 1054 1050
838 833 828 814 798 765 1049
733 712 691 685
3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 695
3029 3029 3029 3029
3029
355
846
75
1048
705
3029
Fossil Fuel C02 > GtC 2.83 3.20 3.57 3.82
Other C02 " GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.6¡ 3.83
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 74 76
N20 total " MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4
SOx total MtS 22.7 ¡7.0 ¡4.9 22.7
HFC MtC eq. ¡9 58 ¡¡0 108
PFC MtC eq. ¡8 13 13 1¡
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5
CO MtCO ¡79 161 173 ¡67
NMVOC Mt 42 36 38 36
NOx MtN ¡3 ¡2 14 ¡5
4.05
0.00
4.05
80
2.4
25.3
¡¡5
9
б
¡62
33
¡5
4.04
-0.02
4.02
85
2,4
20,2
¡¡8
¡88
8
7
34
15
4.22
-0.04
4.18
92
2.4
¡4.0
¡22
9
9
220
35
¡6
4.41
0.00
4.41
101
2.4
7.0
123
10
11
241
38
16
5,¡O
0.05
5.¡5
¡¡4
2.4
8.2
123
¡2
13
266
44
20
5.39
0.06
5.45
126
2.4
2,1
124
13
16
267
43
22
6,23
0,04
6.27
147
2.4
3,9
125
14
18
27¡
39
25
6.94
0.01
6.95
164
2.4
5.6
¡25
¡6
20
28 ¡
35
28
Emissions correiated to Umd-use change and deforestation were calcu¡ated by using AIM A¡ marker land-use data
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker ran.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c; C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al markei run.