Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Statistical
Table
Scenario AIT-AIM
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.4 25.2 31 0 38.1 45.5 54.3 64.2 76.0 89.3 104.0 121.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Eneigy
EJ
Non-commercial 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2
Liquids 64 72 68 69 70 71 72 72 72 73 75 76
Gas 25 32 38 44 47 45 43 40 38 36 36 35
Electricity 22 27 30 33 37 46 58 72 90 105 115 126
Others
Total 127 142 146 156 165 173 181 194 207 219 229 239
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 41 36 35 31 27 26 24 18 13 10 8 7
Oil 76 87 82 80 68 52 40 31 24 22 22 23
Gas 34 51 59 65 68 68 67 62 ' 58 55 54 52
Nuclear 5 8 11 14 18 20 22 21 20 19 20 20
Biomass 6 1 0 3 11 19 34 41 49 55 58 60
Other Renewables 6 6 7 9 13 21 32 50 77 102 114 128
Total 167 189 194 203 205 205 220 223 242 264 276 291
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 l.I 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 64.3 94.6 123.2 149.5 173.8 195.6 214.1 230.2 245.0 258.9
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 410 402 394 377 353 327 302 281 261 237 208 183
Grasslands 787 762 764 792 827 813 799 794 790 775 750 727
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 19 67 102 156 165 174 182 189 195
Foiest 1056 1066 1079 1099 1127 1156 1185 1196 1208 1229 1261 1294
Others 886 910 903 853 765 731 697 702 706 715 727 740
Total 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.14 3.05 2.82 2.61 2.41 2.04 1.72 1.55 1.48 1.41
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.05 -0.09 -0.08 -0.07 -0.03 -0.03 -0 03 -0.04 -0.07
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.06 3.00 2.72 2.53 2.34 2.01 1.70 1.52 1.44 1.34
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 72 71 70 61 53 50 47 44 41 39
N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 170 178 192 199 206 210 215 222 234 245
NMVOC Mt 42 36 34 33 31 26 21 14 8 5 4 3
NOx MtN 13 12 12 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5