Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

506 Statistical Table
Marker Scenario Bl-IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
World
Population Million 5280 6122 6892
7618 8196 8547 8708 8671 8484 8142 7663 7047
GNP/GDP Onex) Trillion US$ 21.0 26.8 37.3
1990 US$/cap ^ 3971.0 4372.0 5416.0
52.6 73.1 100.7 135.6 171.7 208.5 249.7 290.1 328.4
6900.0 8916.0 11783.0 15569.0 19803.0 24577.0 30667.0 37856.0 46598.0
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 54 57 60 53 46 37 27 24 22 19 16 14
Solids 43 43 41 42 43 44 44 40 35 30 25 21
Liquids 106 117 137 152 156 151 135 115 102 93 84 75
Gas 46 52 66 70 71 74 79 82 83 82 80 76
Electricity 39 54 83 122 168 223 260 270 266 255 240 220
Others 2 4 10 23 38 52 64 70 69 65 59 52
Total 289 327 398 462 523 581 608 601 576 544 505 458
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 105 109 120 134 163 181 167 133 101 76 58 44
Oil 129 141 176 206 230 236 228 199 167 143 119 99
Gas 62 71 108 138 153 166 173 168 154 136 121 103
Non-Fossil Electric 8 14 22 33 49 73 105 132 151 163 168 165
Biomass 3 4 11 29 54 77 95 102 99 90 79 67
Other Renewables 61 68 71
Total 368 407 508
66 61 54 46 44 42 41 39 36
606 710 788 813 778 715 650 584 514
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ
Coal 0.0 1.1 2.2
Oil 0.0 1.3 2.9
Gas 0.0 0.6 1.5
3.5 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.0 U.l 12.0 12.7 13.2
4.8 7.0 9.3 11.6 13.8 15.6 17.2 18.5 19.6
2.8 4.2 5.8 7.5 9.2 10.8 12.3 13.6 14.7
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 168.7 268.2 376.9 491.0 606.1 711.2 800.8 875.1 935.2 983.0
Carbon Sequestration •= GtC 2.1 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.5
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland * 1436 1371 1445 1499 1516 1486 1429 1360 1288 1209 1124 1038
Grasslands " 3435 3316 3424 3404 3292 3052 2785 2500 2293 2142 2023 1899
Energy Biomass 8 10 24 68 134 209 268 294 287 262 227 194
Forest 4277 4261 4179 4258 4274 4375 4551 4711 4897 5130 5349 5543
Others 3916 4114 3999 3843 3853 3950 4038 4207 4305 4327 4348 4398
Total 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071 13071
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.50 10.00 11.20 12.20 11.70 10.20 8.60 7.30 6.10 5.20
Other C02 f GtC LU 1.07 0.78 0.63 -0.09 -0.48 -0.41 -0.46 -0.42 -0.60 • -0.78 -0.97
Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.28 10.63 11.11 11.72 11.29 9.74 8.18 6.70 5.32 4.23
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 349 377 385 381 359 342 324 293 266 236
N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.4 5.7
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 73.9 74.6 78.2 78.5 68.9 55.8 44.3 36.1 29.8 24.9
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 789 751 603 531 471 459 456 426 399 363
NMVOC Mt 139 141 141 140 131 123 116 UI 103 99 96 87
NOx MtN 31 32 36 40 42 43 39 34 30 26 22 19
a: NOT ppp-corrected.
b: NOT use but production
c: Net Ecosystem Production (NEP).
d; Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species,
e; Permanent pasture: FAO category "land for grass & fodder species",
f: Approximate calculation from complex land-use module.