Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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226 An Overview of Scenarios |>1 Оо < и 'g о о S -H ^ 8 о "о .g я JS a о M e ce s: с ce CN < CN xt -ItN IN 03 ЧО с ON en -(- r-" NO ON en r- ND I 03 oo ^ CN oo о TcnïïcN^cn'foo^^NO I чо" es 00 ND oo en t. en 00 . I ^ 0 0 гг- r~ iC ND 00 '—' en oo 00 in l^ ND ON en IN en 00 + H- in (N d en NO n en q q CN о oej OÑ ~ d CN en ^ o^ en 2 ^ in О en NO ND О d 0Ó —^ —¡ 00 2 tN CN tN r-H О ON ^0 ^ i n ; ^ ^ c N n D j r O - t x ^ t - i x n t > i-sitN t N i r i ^ 4 0 ' ^ e N ^ C c S f ^ r - J < N x t T e n ' ^ t N ' ^ CN t N — ' + -f ' + -Iо en d un ON rs о xt NO xt 00 о; OÑ 2 W-i О — ^ xt Оч xt in - H о tN iri xt en xt eN en - H -M о CN < ND CN + 00 00 CN + rs с о en + oo" I en" en 00 I 8 •M fS te (N Г-) q ON о ^ d en lo OÑ 2 tN CN tN CN + + t ON ^ ' t-^ ^ r-^ en CN Т-Ч ^ -H ON I + tN NO l> Xt О q C-; xt tN О t--^ •^' d OÑ o
An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л 40% Cropland + Energy Biomass Other (incl. grasslands) Figure 4-12: Global land-use patterns, shares (%) of croplands and energy biomass, forests, and other categories including grasslands - historical development from 1970 to 1990 (based on Bl-IMAGE) and in SRES scenarios. As for the energy triangle in Figure 6-3, each comer corresponds to a hypothetical situation in which land use is dedicated to a much greater extent than today to one category - 60% to cropland and energy biomass at the top, 80% to forests to the left, and 80% to other categories (including grasslands) to the right. Constant shares in total land area of cropland and energy biomass, forests, and other categories are denoted by their respective isoshare lines. For 1990 to 2100, altemative trajectories are shown for the SRES scenarios. The three marker scenarios AlB, Bl, and B2 are shown as thick colored lines, and other SRES scenarios as thin colored lines. The ASF model used to develop the A2 marker scenario projects only land-use change related GHG emissions. Comparable data on land cover changes are therefore not available.The trajectories appear to be largely model specific and illustrate the different views and inteфretations of future land-use pattems across the scenarios (e.g. the scenario trajectories on the right that illustrate larger increases in grasslands and decreases in cropland are MiniCAM results). 4.4.9.1. Al Scenarios In the AIM model, land-use changes at the beginning of the 2P' century follow largely historical trends. Over longer time horizons, the assumption is that land-use changes are driven primarily by economic forces, consistent with the Al scenario storyline. Expected land rents and agricultural prices determine long-run land-use changes, based on an equilibrium approach of intemational agricultural markets. The AIM land-use model IS linked to the AIM energy module via biomass energy demand. In the Al scenario, the rapid increase in the demand for biomass energy raises the expected rent of biomass farmland. Reduction in forest area occurs until 2020 because of population growth and rapid increases of meat demand in the developing countries. Rising meat demands also result in a substantial expansion of grasslands and pasture. However, high incomes in scenario Al also increase the demand for environmental amenities. Hence, "demand" for forests also increases with economic growth, and the expected rent of forestiand is assumed to increase after 2020. These rising rents reduce the rate of deforestation and increase the area of managed tree-covered land in the latter half of the 2P' century. Rising food productivity also counterbalances the pressure on cropland and pastureland in the latter half of the 2P' century. For instance, crop productivity is assumed to grow on average by about 1.5% per year in the Al scenario family.^^ However, despite these counterbalances the demand for pastureland continues to increase throughout the 2P' century because of the high income growth and associated changes in diets. The resultant land-use changes for the Al marker scenario between 1990 and 2100 are:
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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Page 247 and 248: Emission Scenarios
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Page 257 and 258: Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Page 263 and 264: Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Page 269 and 270: Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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