Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-MARIA OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1035 1046 1081 1085 1091 1096 1103 1110 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 19.6 24.7 31.0 36.4 43.3 50.6 55.3 60.3 66.5 72.2 78.3 GNP/GDP (ppp) TrilUon (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial Solids 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 Liquids 71 74 66 60 59 58 57 78 72 66 62 59 Gas 28 27 44 58 66 71 77 59 68 76 81 85 Electricity 21 26 29 32 34 37 39 41 42 44 46 47 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 132 136 145 155 162 168 175 179 182 186 189 191 Primary Energy EJ Coal 38 28 21 16 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 Oil 71 74 66 60 59 58 57 78 72 66 61 57 Gas 34 47 72 94 107 117 115 99 106 112 116 117 Nuclear 18 15 12 11 13 15 19 21 26 32 40 48 Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 7 Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 14 14 16 17 16 16 Total 171 171 178 187 196 204 214 221 227 235 242 248 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1,6 Oil 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.2 Gas 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.9 9.0 10.2 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.3 98.7 133.3 168.9 204.2 239.2 274.5 309.6 344.4 378.9 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Million ha Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 303 243 195 Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 134 182 Forest 756 756 756 756 756 756 768 780 780 780 780 780 Otheis 794 794 794 794 794 794 782 770 770 770 770 770 Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.25 0.03 3.27 3.35 0.05 3.40 3.43 0.08 3.51 3.50 0.11 3.61 3.40 3.53 0.05 -0.01 3.46 3.55 3.51 0.01 3..52 3.46 0.04 3.50 3.40 0.07 3.46 3.33 0.09 3.43 CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. 19 58 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 CO NMVOC NOx MtCO Mt MtN 108 12 16 103 10 5 109 112 7 116 7 7 117 7 7 117 7 119 7 120 7 120 6
Statistical Table 513 Scenario Bl-MARIA REF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 413 419 427 433 432 430 423 406 391 374 356 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.6 5.2 6.2 7.9 10.3 13.0 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 13 9 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 Liquids 17 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 12 Gas 21 20 23 25 30 35 40 41 43 46 45 Electricity 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total .58 48 47 45 49 54 60 60 62 65 67 0 20 39 10 0 Primary Energy EJ Coal 19 13 9 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 Oil 19 13 12 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 12 Gas 27 27 30 32 39 45 50 51 53 55 54 Nuclear 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ! 0 20 47 8 I Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 Total 69 57 54 51 56 61 68 68 71 74 77 3 Cumulative Resources Use ZI Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 \ \ Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.1 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.1 29.2 37.4 46.2 55.7 65.3 74.7 84.2 94.3 0.6 1.2 4.6 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other CQ2 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 217 114 0 815 722 1868 1.30 0.00 1.30 217 114 0 815 722 1868 0.91 0.00 0.91 217 114 0 815 722 1868 0.82 0.02 0.83 217 114 0 815 722 1868 0.76 0.03 0.79 217 114 0 815 722 1868 0.80 0.05 0.85 15 6 7 20 7 7 217 114 0 815 722 1868 0.86 0.06 0.93 24 217 114 0 815 722 0.91 0.06 0.97 174 114 43 815 722 1868 0.90 0.04 0.94 139 114 78 815 722 1868 0.91 0.02 0.94 m 114 106 815 722 1868 0.94 0.04 0.98 89 79 114 114 128 138 815 815 722 722 1868 1868 0.97 1.02 0.05 0.07 1.03 1.09 26 27 27 27 27 26 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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Page 470 and 471: 462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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566 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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