Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 437
Illustrative Scenario AlFI-MiniCAM,
OECD90 previously AlG-MiniCAM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.6 31.5 34.4 44.6 53.5 63.2 74.2 86.4 101.4 117.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na ita na
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 13 14 14 14 15 17 13 12 12 12 12
Liquids 72 73 75 77 73 70 81 87 94 102 97 93
Gas 27 36 47 59 60 62 62 70 80 91 90 89
Electricity 22 28 37 48 53 70 85 95 105 116 126 137
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 130 151 173 197 199 217 245 265 290 320 325 330
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 40 47 48 45 51 70 82 86 93 104 167 231
Oil 76 78 79 79 71 59 70 71 72 74 34 -6
Gas 34 47 69 100 103 112 116 131 146 160 158 157
Nuclear 20 16 14 16 17 18 18 19 22 25 29 33
Biomass 0 2 4 5 5 7 9 11 13 13 17 20
Other Renewables 12 11 10 10 10 12 14 18 23 28 35 42
Total 182 201 225 254 257 279 310 336 368 404 440 476
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.2
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.9 7.3
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.4 4.0 5.2 6.4 7.8 9.3 10.9 12.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 67.5 107.1 149.4 193.9 242.3 294.5 349.7 408.5 472,7 544.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 408 410 412 414 409 385 358 312 272 238 207 177
Grasslands 796 820 866 935 970 1058 1094 1058 1013 962 918 873
Energy Biomass 0 4 6 8 10 18 24 34 38 36 50 63
Forest 921 931 921 894 869 809 787 864 938 1011 1039 1067
Others 998 959 917 872 865 853 858 856 861 876 909 942
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.58 3.95 4.03 4.46 5.02 5.34 5.76 6.30 7,14 8.02
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.25 0.24 0.16 0.05 0.02 -0.07 -0.24 -0,35 -0.47
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.72 4.19 4.27 4.63 5.07 5.36 5.69 6.06 6.78 7.55
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 86 101 108 131 149 172 196 223 246 270
N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4
SOx total MtS 22,7 17.0 13.9 4.7 4.0 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.0
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 ¡23 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 181 199 187 211 250 269 274 304 307 319
NMVOC Mt 42 36 39 39 32 33 37 41 45 52 55 60
NOx MtN 13 12 14 16 15 16 16 16 18 20 23 24