Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Emission Scenarios 289
1200
oU, \ \ U U u \ I II li Il I I il II II
1990 2020 2020 2020 2020 2050 2050 2050 2050 2100 2100 2100 2100
AlB A 2 Bl B2 AlB Л2 fli fl2 AIB Л2 Bl B2
Figure 5-19: Halocarbons and other halogenated compounds emissions in the SRES marker scenarios by region. The numbers
for the additional two illustrative scenarios for the AlFI and AIT scenario groups noted in the Summary for Policymakers can
be found in Appendix Vll.
5.6.1.7. Sulfur
As noted in Section 5.5.2.1, even with a comparatively good
agreement on global sulfur emission levels, important
uncertainties remain at the sectoral and regional levels. The
base-year uncertainties are especially important because
regional sulfur emissions trends have changed drastically
during the past decade. While declining strongly in the
industrialized regions as a result of sulfur control policies in
Europe and North America, and because of economic reforms
in Russia and Eastem Europe, emissions increase rapidly in
Asia with an increase in the energy demand and coal use.
As a general rule, in the SRES scenarios an increasing
affluence causes energy use per capita to rise and leads to the
substhution of solid fuels, such as coal and fuelwood, with
energy forms of higher quality. This relationship determines
the sulfur emission dynamics across the SRES markers and
regions (Figure 5-20).
)20
1990 2020 2020 2020 2020 2050 2050 2050 2050 2100 2100 2100 2100
AIB A2 Bl B2 AIB A2 Bl B2 AIB A2 Bl B2
Figure 5-20: Anthropogenic SO, emissions in the SRES marker scenarios by region. The numbers for the additional two
illustrative scenarios for the AlFI and AIT scenario groups noted in the Summary for Policymakers can be found in Appendix
VII.