Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

450 Statistical Table
Illustrative Scenario AIT-MESSAGE
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.9 2.7 4.4 9.8 20.0 34.3 53.5 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
3.8 5.1 7.5 13.3 22.8 36.7 55.3 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 9 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Energy
EJ
1 4 5 5 6 8 7 6 2 1 1 1
17 24 35 52 75 97 114 122 123 122 125 109
4 6 11 18 27 35 43 54 56 49 42 36
3 5 9 17 33 54 81 111 140 165 188 215
0 2 4 7 12 21 33 44 59 80 96 118
39 52 73 106 157 217 279 336 379 418 452 478
Coal
5 5 8 10 16 24 26 24 18 12 5 4
Oil
21 31 40 53 69 81 90 89 77 54 43 28
Gas
8 14 23 37 65 91 101 107 92 78 69 63
Nuclear 0 0 I 2 6 12 23 30 38 40 40 35
Biomass 14 13 17 24 36 50 62 81 104 134 153 153
Other Renewables 2 4 8 14 21 44 87 150 236 326 406 508
Total 49 68 96 139 213 301 389 480 565 644 717 791
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5
Oil
0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.6 6.1 6.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.4 6.2 6.8
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.0 58.5 85.3 119.6 159.0 199.2 235.8 265.4 288.2 305.8
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use »
Million ha
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 b GtC 0.72 1.01 1.41 1.92 2.82 3.62 3.94 3.84 3.26 2.48 1.94 1.48
Other C02 с GtC 0.73 0.82 0.60 0..36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.03
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.01 2.28 3.07 3.81 4.07 3.96 3.36 2.56 2.00 1.51
CH4 total d MtCH4 77 85 98 114 133 150 162 155 141 123 105 90
N20 total e MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.0 15.7 16,8 15.7 13.5 11.3 8.8 6.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 431 474 533 608 67! 760 858 938 992 1035
NMVOC Mt 48 55 63 74 83 92 98 95 87 69 58 50
NOx MtN 7 8 10 12 15 18 20 21 19 15 13 12
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM AIT run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM Al marker run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM AIT run.