Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 393
Scenario AlB-IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
REF
Population Million 412 429 437 443 445 443 432 419 401 384 365 347
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.0 0.7 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.9 9.2 13.0 17.2 22.7 28.4 34.3
l990US$/cap'> 2307.2 1657.3 2378.6 4378.7 7868.6 13380.5 21343.7 30936.4 42882.5 59159.7 7774Í.4 98993.7
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
Solids 14 10 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 4
4
Liquids 21 12 12 15 16 16 15 15 14 13
12 и
Gas 15 II 10 12 12 И II 10 10 10
9 с
Electricity 9 5 7 15 22 30 34 34 32 3! 29
Others 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total 62 41 40 50 59 68 71 70 67 63 59 5e
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 36 19 15 16 20 27 28 25 22 18 15 11
Oil 28 14 16 20 23 26 30 29 27 25 23 20
Gas 25 15 16 23 27 28 25 22 20 17 17 13
Non-Fossil Electric J 1 1 3 6 9 И U 12 12 12 12
Biomass I 1 I 2 3 6 6 6 6 7 7 9
Other Renewables 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total 95 52 52 67 82 99 103 98 90 84 77 70
Cumulative Resources Production ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 Í.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.4
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.4 31.0 41.3 53.0 66.7 80.8 94.3 107.7 12Û.7 133.2
Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 278 223 229 227 224 218 207 199 189 179 169 164
Grasslands " 392 307 329 339 333 310 279 258 238 234 226 221
Energy Biomass 1 0 1 6 19 46 84 87 92 83 83 92
Forest 1146 1174 1167 1250 1242 1238 1238 1233 1227 1226 1218 1200
Others 461 574 551 455 460 466 471 501 532 556 582 600
Total 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.91 LU 1.31 1.61 1.61 1.41 1.31 1.21 LOI 0.91
Other C02 f GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.09 -0.27 -0.30 -0.18 -0.03 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.35
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 1.02 1.04 1.31 1.43 i.38 1..33 1.36 1.25 1.26
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 41 51 57 58 52 52 51 47 43 40
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 9.4 9.7 9.6 10.6 10.6 9.9 8.9 7.8 6.8 5.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 U
CO
MtCO
69 41 34 38 45 52 55 56 56 56 54 52
NMVOC Mt 16 13 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 U 11
NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
a: NOT ppp-corrected.
b: NOT use but production.
c: Net Ecosystem Production (NEP).
d: Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species,
e: Permanent pasture: FAO category -'land for grass & fodder species",
f: Approximate calculation from complex land-use module.