Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

418
Statistical
Table
Scenario AlC-MESSAGE
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
413
419
427
433 435
433
423
409
392
374
357
339
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.1
2.6
0.8
2.2
1.0
2.5
2.1
3.7
5.4
6.0
9.4
9.4
12.6
12.6
16.2
16.2
20.0
20.0
24.4
24.4
29.2
29.2
34.4
34.4
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
Primary Eneigy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 ¡0 11 15 19 23 25 25 27 32 34 32
14 10 12 16 19 19 18 20 16 10 4 4
6 5 6 8 14 19 23 27 32 37 42 45
7 6 6 8 U 11 13 15 16 15 18 18
50 36 38 48 65 73 80 87 91 95 98
98
19 13 13 15 21 26 31 37 49 70 i 04 ¡46
20 14 13 15 17 19 19 12 9 6 5 4
27 21 22 30 41 45 47 62' 61 48 19 12
1 1 1 1 1 2 5 6 7 7 8
8
2 1 1 1 3 4 6 7 10 14 15 19
Other Renewables
Total
1 1 2 3 5 6 8 10 13 15 17 19
70 51 51 65 87 101 115 134 149 161 168 208
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.6 4.9
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC 1.3 12.3 22.3 33.3 46.3 61.8 78.8 98.0 120.6 146.8 177.1 215.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 371 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 11 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 709 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 1,12 1.48 1.70 1.90 2.21 2.52 2,88 3.33 4.44
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.08 1.13 1.47 1.63 1.75 2.10 2.43 2.81 3.27 4.38
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 43 51 61 61 62 70 74 81 93 121
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 11.3 12.8 14.0 14.3 14.4 12.9 16.9 22.5 20.8 12.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 45 59 82 108 129 150 144 136 134 143
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 19 25 31 36 43 45 44 37 32
NOx MtN 5 3 3 4 6 8 9 10 II 12 12 13
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker nin.
b;C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industiial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run),
d; Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker nm.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.