Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

342 Six Modeling Approaches
Table IV-4: Shadow prices for international trade in the B2
marker (1990US$/GJ).
Year Gas Coal Oil
2020 0.4 0.3 0.5
2050 0.7 0.4 1.1
2100 0.7 1.1 2.3
Table IV-5: Ranges of extraction costs for the four SRES
regions in the B2 marker (I990US$/GJ).
Year Gas Coal Oil
2020 (0.2-0.3) (0.2-0.3) (0.1-0.4)
2050 (0.3-0.6) (0.2-0.3) (0.4-0.6)
2100 (0.5-0.8) (0.4-0.7) (0.5-0.7)
Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change
(MAGICC), a carbon cycle and climate change model
developed by Wigley et al. (1994).
Figure IV-4 illustrates the IIASA integrated modeling
framework and shows how the models are linked (Nakicenovic,
et al, 1998). Of the six models shown in Figure IV-4, four (SG,
MESSAGE, MACRO, and MAGICC) were used for the
fonnulation and analysis of SRES scenarios, including the B2
marker scenario. In addition the MESSAGE model was used to
quantify all four scenario groups of the Al storyline and
scenario family and a number of scenarios of the В1 storyline
and scenario family. Altogether, the IIASA team formulated
nine SRES scenarios, including the B2 marker.
The other two models shown in Figure IV-4, RAINS and BLS,
were not used to model the SRES scenarios. RAINS (Alcamo
et al, 1990) is a simulation model of sulfur and NO^, emissions,
their subsequent atmospheric transport, chemical
transformations of those emissions, deposition, and ecological
impacts. BLS (Fischer et al, 1988, 1994) is a sectorial macroeconomic
model that accounts for all major inputs (such as
land, fertilizer, capital, and labor) required for the production
of 11 agricultural commodities.
The IIASA model set covers energy sector and industrial
emission sources only. Agricultural and land-use related
emissions for the B2 marker scenario and other SRES
Soft-Linking
• Conversion of Scenarios
from World to RAINS
Regions
• Defining Sulfur
Constfamls
1 Scenario Definition and
I
Evaluation
• Economic Development
• Demographic Projections
• Technological Change
• Intemational Prices
• Environmental Policies
• Energy Intensity
Soft-Linking
• Investment
•World Mai ket Prices
• GDP Growth
• Technological Change
RAINS
Regional Air Pollution
Impacts Model
SCENARIO
GENERATOR
Economic and Eneigy
Development model
BLS
Bdsic Linked System of
NdUonal Agricultural Models
MESSAGE-MACRO
Energy Systems Engineering and
Macroeconomic Energy model
MAGICC
Model for the Assessment
of GHG-Included Climate
Change
Common Databases
Energy, Economy, Resouices
Teclmology Inventoiy C02DB
GCM
Three Diffient Geneial
Circulation Model Run
Figure IV-4: IIASA integrated modeling framework (Nakicenovic, et al, 1998).