Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
519
Scenario Bl-MESSAGE
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 4.8 8.7 15.1 24.9 37.9 51.4 64.8 78.7 91.7 103.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.2 12.0 17.3 24.6 34.1 46.1 57.4 67.7 79.3 91.7 103.1
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial
24 16 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids
19 33 47 48 46 32 19 14 6 2 1 0
Liquids
13 22 35 50 65 82 87 78 68 55 45 38
Gas
2 3 7 11 11 14 11 10 10 10 10 10
Electricity 4 6 11 19 30 42 49 57 60 64 63 58
Others 1 2 6 11 18 27 34 45 49 52 50 45
Total 62 82 117 146 175 199 202 204 193 182 170 150
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 30 42 57 58 51 44 24 13 8 8 9 10
Oil 15 26 38 52 66 68 72 61 52 37 25 17
Gas 3 5 13 24 36 51 53 53 50 46 34 27
Nuclear 0 1 1 3 5 9 11 13 14 17 17 17
Biomass 24 22 26 30 39 49 54 61 63 67 72 73
Other Renewables 1 3 6 12 20 35 54 77 83 85 87 74
Total 74 98 141 178 217 256 268 278 270 260 244 218
Cumulative Resoui'ces Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.1
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.3
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 43.3 71.2 100.9 132.5 163.1 189.1 210.1 227.1 240.4 251.0
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use ^
Million ha
Cropland 438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433
Grasslands 608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 12 28 40 52 54 55 54 50 46
Forest 535 525 518 535 551 557 563 578 593 604 610 616
Others 583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 •> GtC 1.15 1.78 2.56 3.01 3.27 3.33 2.93 2.41 2.06 1.69 1.29 1.06
Other C02 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.17 -0.18 -0.10 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.18 -0.14 -0.10
Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.75 2.84 3.09 3.23 2.90 2.31 1.89 1.51 1.15 0.96
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 145 164 183 196 201 194 189 172 141 109
N20 total " MtN20-N 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 31.8 29.9 26.3 19.3 13.1 9.3 6.7 4.4 3.1 2.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 345 421 511 597 632 621 603 587 583 559
NMVOC Mt 33 37 48 56 58 59 57 46 40 32 25 20
NOx MtN 7 9 12 14 16 17 15 12 10 8 7 6
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B 1 enmlation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use chiuiges (AIM-B 1 emulation run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.