Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
433
Scenario AIG-MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
REF
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.1 5.4 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.7 6.0 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 4 3 3 3 ! 1 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 10 12 16 16 22 28 29 28 27 28
Gas 14 10 12 16 19 20 16 12 9 8 7 5
Electricity 6 5 6 9 15 21 27 33 38 42 46 49
Others 7 6 6 8 12 14 13 14 15 16 16 16
Total 50 35 38 47 64 71 79 86 90 94 97 97
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 19 13 10 14 20 23 22 25 23 21 21 20
Oil 20 14 13 13 16 16 19 27 30 32 23 19
Gas 27 21 25 29 36 38 40 45 49 60 71 92
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 2 4 7 11 16 20 25 24
Biomass 2 1 1 3 6 10 14 17 28 32 33 33
Other Renewables 1 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 16 19 21 23
Tota! 70 51 51 63 85 98 112 138 162 183 193 211
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4
1.0 1.2 1.4 !.7 1.9 2.1
0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2
1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.4
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.3 12.3 22.0 32.3 44.2 57.9
71.8 87.4 105.3 124.5 144.4 165.2
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use '
Million ha
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 .371 371 372 373
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 11 16 19 22 23 21
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 709 703 700
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
260
374
20
927
696
2276
pogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 ь GtC 1.30 0.91 0.85 1.02 1.35 1.46 1.54 1.86 1.94 2.06 2.05
Other C02 •= GtC 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.03 1.03 1.34 1.39 1.39 1.74 1.85 1.99 1.98
CH4 total * MtCH4 47 39 42 50 59 59 53 52 51 51 51
N20 total " MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.2 4.8 3.9 4.5 4.1 4.2 3.3 3.3 3,1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10
CO MtCO 69 41 46 52 82 97 no 115 118 110 99
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 20 26 32 38 55 78 96 93
NOx MtN 5 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4
2.24
-0.05
2.19
50
0.6
3.3
31
24
11
81
99
5
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial proces.ses (MESSAGE data),
t; C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.