Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
503
Scenario Bl-ASF
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 417 419 425 431 432 425 423 406 398 374 347 .339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.9 4.6 5.3 6.6 7.4 10.0 12.8 14.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
Non-commercial
EJ
Solids 18 11 11 9 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 I
Liquids 16 И 12 13 12 II 11 9 8 7 7 7
Gas 16 12 15 18 17 17 16 14 11 9 8 6
Electricity 8 7 9 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8
Others
Total 57 42 47 51 48 44 4! 36 32 28 25 21
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 23 13 14 14 14 13 12 9 5 3 2 2
Oil 18 13 14 15 14 13 13 9 6 4 2 1
Gas 26 22 26 30 27 24 21 17 14 11 9 7
Nuclear 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 9
Other Renewables 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 6 6
Total 69 50 57 64 59 55 50 43 36 31 28 25
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 l.I 1.1 1.1
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.9 32.5 42.8 51.8 59.0 64.2 67.4 68.9 69.3 68.9
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 I.Ol 1.09 0.98 0.81 0.63 0.42
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.01 1.09 0.98 0.81 0.63 0.42
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 43 53 67 78 89 77
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 ll.O 10.4 9.6 8.0 5.7 3.4 2.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9
CO MtCO 69 41 41 38 41 38 35 31
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 22 27 26 25 24
NOx MtN 5 3 3 4 3 3 2 2
0.22
0.00
0.22
65
0.6
1.6
27
9
7
28
22
1
0.07
0.00
0.07
54
0.5
1.0
27
8
6
25
22
1
0.00
0.00
0.00
46
0.5
0.7
27
8
4
24
25
1
-0.08
0.00
-0.08
37
0.5
0.4
26
8
4
23
27
0