Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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398 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-MARIA REF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 413 419 427 433 432 430 423 406 391 374 356 339 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.6 4.6 8.1 13.7 18.1 22.4 27.1 32.9 40.4 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 13 9 6 4 3 2 3 6 10 17 27 19 17 14 12 11 12 13 12 8 14 16 26 23 21 24 27 30 41 53 65 70 61 54 38 53 7 8 7 7 9 U 13 14 15 16 17 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 55 52 53 65 78 93 98 100 102 107 113 Primary Energy EJ Coal 19 13 9 6 4 3 4 6 10 17 27 19 Oil 19 14 13 12 12 13 12 8 14 16 26 23 Gas 27 33 34 38 52 66 80 86^ 77 69 53 69 Nuclear 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 9 11 13 17 21 Biomass 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total 69 64 60 61 74 89 106 113 116 120 128 136 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0,5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 Gas 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.2 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 20.9 28.8 37.2 47.3 59.2 71.8 84.6 97,6 111.6 126.2 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Million ha Cropland 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 174 139 111 89 71 Grasslands 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 114 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 78 106 128 146 Forest 815 815 815 815 815 815 827 862 862 862 862 862 Others 722 722 722 722 722 722 710 675 675 675 675 675 Total 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 1868 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1..30 0.91 0.79 0.75 0.93 1.14 1.34 1,43 1.50 1..59 1.82 1.78 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.07 -0.17 -0.21 -0.27 -0.34 -0.33 1.30 0.91 0.81 0.76 0.92 1.11 1.27 1.26 1.29 1.32 1.47 1.45 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
Statistical Table 399 Scenario AlB-MARIA ASIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 2642 3080 3425 3728 3861 3895 4008 3814 3632 3368 3040 2744 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.2 2.6 5.8 12.5 21.1 36.5 62.9 81.9 104.9 132.1 164.8 210.8 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 20 18 24 17 12 8 15 25 41 68 104 73 26 42 65 96 121 154 181 183 203 199 211 252 2 3 4 10 17 27 40 53 44 49 35 57 4 9 12 17 18 27 40 51 64 79 97 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 71 105 140 168 216 276 312 352 395 446 501 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 28 24 28 20 14 10 16 26 42 68 104 73 14 23 36 48 62 87 111 98 98 70 55 59 3 5 8 14 22 30 42 54 45 50 35 58 1 12 19 35 34 64 78 104 132 169 214 269 13 21 31 51 65 71 73 88 106 130 L57 193 Other Renewables Total 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 20 20 20 20 20 61 86 124 168 197 263 340 389 443 507 585 671 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.8 6.5 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.1 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 41.5 65.8 91.5 120.9 156.9 197.6 240.3 285.2 332,8 380.3 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 366 366 380 380 380 380 380 379 374 335 305 266 431 431 421 421 421 382 379 371 375 375 375 375 0 0 0 0 0 39 43 52 54 92 122 162 365 367 381 390 399 406 406 406 406 406 406 406 458 456 440 430 421 414 412 412 412 412 412 412 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 1621 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fosstl Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MiC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1.15 1.78 2.20 2.31 2.55 3.08 3.91 4.08 4.36 4.56 4.96 4.58 0,37 0.26 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.01 -0.01 -0.03 1,53 2.03 2.40 2.46 2.68 3.19 4.00 4.14 4.40 4.57 4.95 4.55 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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Page 367 and 368: Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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Page 424 and 425: 416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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448 Statistical Table Illustrative
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450 Statistical Table Illustrative
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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454 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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