Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

518
Statistical Table
Scenario Bl-MESSAGE
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
413 419 427 433
435
433
423
409
392
374
357
339
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.1
2.6
0.8
2.2
1.1
2.6
1.7
3.3
2.8
4.3
4.3
5.3
6.2
6.4
8.2
8.2
10.3
10.3
12.8
12.8
15.3
15.3
18.1
18.1
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 10 10 13 15 17 18 16 13 10 9 8
14 10 11 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 3 2
6 5 6 7 9 12 14 15 15 15 15 15
7 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7
50 36 37 40 43 46 47 45 41 39 35 32
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
19 12 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2
20 14 13 15 17 16 16 15 11 9 6 5
27 21 25 28 33 40 43 49 53 48 40 31
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 6 9
Other Renewables
Total
1 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 9 10
70 51 49 53 59 67 70 74 74 69 63 57
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 LO 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.4
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.3 12.3 21.3 29.5 36.9 44.2 51.3 58.7 67.0 75.0 81.7 86.8
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262
341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382
0 0 0 9 20 29 37 38 39 38 35 33
966 951 934 933 934 954 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
701 696 711 702 688 659 630 617 604 592 580 568
2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 •> GtC 1.30 0.91 0.85 0.85 0.87 0.92 0.97 1.03
Other C02^• GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.11 -0.12 -0.20 -0.28 -0.23
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.89 0.73 0.75 0.72 0.69 0.81
CH4 total d MtCH4 47 39 40 40 41 43 43 39
N20 total « MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
SOx total MtS !7.0 11.0 7.1 4.6 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9
CO MtCO 69 41 45 46 51 60 65 60
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 17 20 23 27 29
NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
1.02
-0.17
0.85
37
0.6
1.3
27
9
7
50
31
3
0.90
-0.15
0.75
33
0.6
1.4
27
8
6
38
28
2
0.73
-0.14
0.59
30
0.6
1.5
27
8
4
34
21
1
0.56
-0.14
0.42
26
0.6
1.6
26
8
4
30
14
1
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-B I emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.