Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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510 Statistical Table Marker Scenario Bl-IMAGE ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1287 1597 1954 2315 2643 2879 3055 3¡59 3202 3145 3006 2783 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.1 3.¡ 5.6 9.8 16.9 27.6 41.6 -56.7 73.6 92.0 ¡09.¡ ¡24.9 1990 US$/cap " 1653.4 1933.0 2839.5 4243.2 6406.6 9580.8 13623.6 17954.7 22996.3 29243.6 363 ¡1.8 44869.7 Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 16 19 24 23 21 18 14 13 11 10 9 7 Solids 1 3 5 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 8 7 Liquids 15 23 36 48 55 60 58 53 48 45 40 35 Gas 4 8 15 16 16 17 21 23 25 25 25 23 Electricity 4 ¡0 2¡ 41 67 90 100 101 97 89 79 Others 0 0 1 4 8 9 13 17 18 18 17 15 Total 39 57 9¡ 119 150 183 2¡¡ 219 216 205 187 ¡65 Primary Energy EJ Coal 3 4 ¡0 24 48 64 65 54 42 32 24 ¡8 Oil 17 27 48 68 87 107 ¡14 103 89 77 62 5¡ Gas 6 10 25 33 36 45 59 64 60 52 47 37 Non-Fossil Electric 0 0 1 2 5 12 24 36 46 53 55 53 Biomass 0 0 2 7 14 23 29 36 33 33 28 22 Other Renewables 18 22 27 26 25 23 20 19 19 18 16 15 Total 43 64 ¡¡2 160 216 273 312 313 290 265 232 ¡96 Cumulative Resources Production ZJ ^ Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 Oil 0.0 0.6 ¡.5 2.6 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.1 9.9 10.6 ¡1.1 Gas 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 ¡.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 38.3 65.3 99.8 141.4 189.¡ 236.8 279.7 316.2 346.2 370.6 Carbon Sequestration ^ GtC 1.2 l.¡ 1.7 2.1 2.1 ¡.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Land Use Million ha Cropland 397 408 477 521 .558 553 .530 506 486 460 423 385 Grasslands 1697 1660 ¡750 1784 ¡755 1592 ¡424 1295 1184 1108 ¡U4¡ 975 Energy Biomass 2 7 ¡8 44 74 84 96 90 94 84 83 74 Forest 1528 1517 ¡441 1386 1365 ¡437 ¡548 1639 ¡726 1798 ¡868 1940 Others 1955 1987 ¡893 1844 1827 ¡915 ¡98¡ 2050 2090 2130 2 ¡65 2205 Total 5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 .5579 5579 5579 5579 5579 .5579 5579 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.81 2.71 3.71 4.81 5.¡1 4.71 4.11 3.51 2.91 2.41 Other C02 f GtC 0.73 0.82 0,45 0.45 0.04 -0.25 -0.13 -0.15 -0.10 -0.21 -0.22 -0.22 Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.26 3.16 3.75 4.56 4.98 4.56 4.01 3.30 2.69 2.19 CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 100 ¡¡5 1¡9 117 112 108 103 92 82 70 N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 ¡.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 SOx total MtS ¡0.5 ¡2.8 2¡.2 26.8 33.7 37.4 35.6 29.9 24.0 19.5 15.7 12.6 HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89 PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 ¡1 11 11 ¡2 12 SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 ¡2 17 22 24 21 ¡4 ¡4 ¡4 CO MtCO 396 404 321 301 ¡86 126 12¡ 131 143 121 105 83 NMVOC Mt 48 55 54 55 5¡ 48 47 47 45 42 40 36 NOx MtN 7 8 10 13 ¡6 18 ¡8 17 15 13 11 10 a: NOT ppp-corrected. b: NOT use but production с; Net Ecftsysíem Production (NEP). d: Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species, e: Permanent pasture: FAO category "land for grass & fodder species", f; Approximate calculation from complex land-use module.
Statistical Table щ Scenario Bl-MARIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 World Population MilUon 5262 6117 6888 7617 8048 8207 8704 8536 8372 8028 7527 7056 GNP/GDP (raex) TriUion US $ 19.4 25.5 34.2 46.0 60.0 80,7 U0.2 135.8 169.8 214.5 275.5 348.5 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial Solids 48 34 24 Liquids 138 148 167 Gas 56 54 79 Electricity 35 46 53 Others 0 0 0 Total 278 282 323 17 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 188 215 247 288 349 368 400 410 448 111 142 171 197 175 173 165 185 177 61 70 80 98 105 115 131 150 164 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 377 438 507 590 633 658 697 747 791 ' Energy EJ Coal 90 64 46 Oil 123 134 146 Gas 71 91 129 Nuclear 22 18 17 Biomass 28 30 37 34 25 19 14 12 9 7 5 5 158 177 192 186 177 156 158 147 170 169 205 237 251 228 223 212 231 219 15 16 26 43 70 114 173 237 283 55 75 (04 136 198 231 257 276 291 Other Renewables 9 8 7 7 6 5 57 63 64 64 63 62 Total 343 345 382 438 504 583 687 747 797 873 959 1030 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Oil 0.0 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.4 9.3 11.2 12.9 14.5 16.1 17.5 Gas 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.6 9.0 11.5 13.8 16.0 18.2 20.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 163.5 248.3 338.4 434.2 531.6 623.8 708.1 787.8 866.6 947.1 Carbon Sequesfration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Million ha Cropland 1451 1451 1454 1689 1809 1821 1912 1713 1527 1363 1240 1145 Grasslands 3395 3395 3392 3160 3040 3029 2773 2609 2609 2609 2609 2609 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 164 528 713 877 1000 1095 Forest 4138 4142 4170 4199 4231 4265 4310 436] 4408 4412 4412 4412 Others 4061 4057 4029 3997 3965 3930 3886 3835 3788 3784 3784 3784 Total 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 7.25 7.80 8.49 9.J3 9.11 8.49 7.94 7.77 7.79 8.06 0.99 0.91 0.82 0.72 0.53 0.31 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.13 8.25 8.71 9.31 9.85 9.64 8.80 8.05 7.88 7.90 8.19 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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458 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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560 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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