Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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408 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-MiniCAM REF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 428 425 426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357 340 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.5 5.1 6.9 10.0 13.6 17.8 21.8 26.3 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 4 4 4 4 18 12 9 11 12 14 16 19 21 23 23 24 19 15 13 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 11 5 6 8 13 21 33 44 56 68 79 89 94 98 0 0 0 1 I 2 3 4 4 4 3 1 56 44 45 57 70 84 98 112 125 137 134 132 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nucleiir Biomass EJ 18 17 19 22 30 34 34 24 18 17 19 22 20 13 11 13 10 9 12 18 22 24 25 27 26 20 22 34 47 53 54 58 60 60 36 12 3 4 6 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 23 31 0 1 2 3 7 10 12 14 13 12 12 12 Other Renewables Total 3 3 4 5 7 14 26 41 56 70 75 80 70 58 64 87 111 132 151 169 184 197 191 184 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1,2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2,2 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.7 33.1 48.1 66.0 85.3 104.4 122.9 141.1 157.0 168.8 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 284 294 304 317 322 321 312 273 230 183 158 134 395 410 454 527 609 676 729 684 616 526 488 451 0 0 1 4 17 26 31 32 28 20 18 16 1007 1016 996 945 861 792 738 818 928 1066 1109 1151 691 657 622 584 569 563 567 570 575 582 604 626 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.94 1.23 1.56 1.77 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.13 Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.97 1.31 1.69 1.90 CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 49 68 82 96 N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 l.l 1.4 SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.1 10.1 10.7 9.4 HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1.8S 0.10 1.94 108 1.6 6.4 32 21 21 1.77 0.10 1.87 106 1.6 3.4 33 22 19 1.73 0.09 1.83 108 1,6 1.7 33 23 15 1.73 0.08 1.81 112 1.5 1.4 34 24 14 1.51 -0.13 1.38 99 1.5 1.8 33 25 10 1.31 -0.34 0.97 86 1.6 2.2 31 24 11
Statistical Table 409 Scenario AlB-MiniCAM ASIA 990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 790 .3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.5 11.7 23.9 40.4 61.3 86.4 112.3 139.1 166.0 195.3 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 31 45 62 73 78 76 54 40 32 31 31 14 19 27 36 47 61 78 93 106 118 130 143 2 5 8 11 14 16 17 20 23 25 16 7 4 11 25 47 90 141 200 254 305 352 382 412 0 0 2 7 14 26 45 55 62 67 52 36 40 67 108 163 238 322 416 476 535 594 611 629 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 26 45 71 104 133 147 147 110 86 73 81 90 16 21 29 40 47 61 81 101 116 126 140 154 3 9 24 49 102 149 192 219 235 241 149 57 1 4 9 17 27 37 47 51 55 60 97 135 0 2 5 10 22 35 48 58 61 59 64 70 Other Renewables Total 3 4 5 8 14 40 85 149 212 275 304 332 49 85 144 227 344 468 600 687 765 833 835 838 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.2 8.1 9.0 9.8 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.5 5.7 7.1 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.4 6.5 8.8 11.1 12.8 14.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 44.4 81.5 134.0 201.2 279.3 360.4 439.2 516.5 588.5 651.2 Carbon Sequesttation GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 389 400 410 420 416 405 387 350 312 273 235 198 508 524 555 603 646 681 708 704 691 670 641 612 0 0 2 6 28 51 75 85 83 67 73 79 1168 1144 1102 1041 980 932 896 925 978 1053 1116 1179 664 633 600 565 .551 545 547 550 555 562 581 600 2729 2700 2668 2635 2620 2613 2614 2614 2618 2626 2647 2667 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1.15 1.78 2.79 4.16 5.78 7.07 8.03 7.86 7.75 7.70 6.88 6.10 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.27 0.31 0.29 0.22 0.11 0.03 -0.01 -0.16 -0.30 1.53 2.03 2.99 4.43 6.08 7.36 8.26 7.97 7.78 7.69 6.72 5.80 113 125 134 146 160 172 180 172 166 163 159 154 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3,7 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 17.7 25.3 37.9 50.0 47.4 38.3 22.7 14.3 9.5 8.2 9.4 10.6 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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458 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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460 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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