Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2High-lVIiniCAM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5293 6147 7009 7880 8640 9304 9874 10216 10453 10585 10501 10418 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 36.3 47.3 61.8 79.8 101.1 126.5 154.0 183.6 215.7 250.7 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 45 57 72 89 104 118 131 119 111 108 105 102 Liquids 121 124 131 143 143 159 193 225 258 292 318 344 Gas 52 62 72 84 81 74 62 58 57 60 52 44 ElecO-icity 35 53 80 116 159 209 268 339 415 497 574 651 Otliers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 253 295 355 433 486 560 654 740 841 957 1049 1141 Primary Energy EJ Coal 88 115 145 178 263 362 474 540 592 630 700 771 Oil 131 133 139 149 114 91 80 74 77 88 72 57 Gas 70 83 115 165 180 185 181 183 191- 206 173 140 Nuclear 24 25 31 42 60 79 100 108 121 142 161 180 Biomass 0 6 12 17 27 40 56 86 110 128 150 172 Other Renewables 24 24 27 32 40 55 75 115 158 202 254 305 Total 336 386 468 582 684 812 966 1105 1248 1395 1510 1625 five Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.1 1.2 2.5 4.1 6,5 9.7 13.7 19.0 24.6 30.6 37.5 44.4 Oil 0.1 1.5 2.8 4.3 5.5 6.5 7.4 8.1 8.9 9.7 10.5 11.2 Gas 0.1 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.8 8.6 10.5 12.4 14.3 16.1 17.9 live C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 168.5 271.1 392.9 532.5 691.9 870.2 1062.5 1263.9 1471.7 1686.1 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1472 1473 1491 1526 1522 1488 1423 1284 1163 1060 975 890 3209 3347 3570 3880 4164 4370 4501 4326 4168 4027 3957 3886 0 3 8 13 36 74 128 233 308 352 430 507 4173 4214 4140 3952 3701 3531 3441 3733 3962 4129 4093 4058 4310 4127 3955 3794 3742 3701 3672 3588 3562 3596 3710 3824 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5.99 6.90 8.20 9.92 11.77 13.87 16.44 18.03 19.52 20.92 21.97 23.10 LU 1.07 1.03 1.38 1.29 0.99 0.57 0.62 0.28 -0.44 -0.88 -1.32 7.10 7.97 9.23 11.30 13.06 14.86 17.02 18.65 19.80 20.47 21.09 21.78 310 323 353 397 439 483 520 533 549 567 590 613 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.2 10.4 11.9 13.2 13.7 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.5 70.9, 69.0 81.6 86.9 97.7 104.4 107.0 86.4 69.1 55.0 45.6 36.2 1672 883 786 '299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69
Statistical Table 577 Scenario BlHigli-MiniCAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 OECD90 Population Million 838 907 958 993 1003 1024 1023 1013 1006 1002 1003 1004 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 24.5 28.4 29.4 32.9 35.9 38.0 40.4 43.0 46.6 50.3 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 10 12 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 10 10 9 Liquids 72 71 69 65 59 47 47 46 45 46 47 47 Gas 27 35 42 47 44 34 26 22 20 20 17 14 Electricity 22 28 34 42 44 52 58 61 64 67 72 76 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 130 146 158 166 160 146 146 140 139 143 145 146 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 40 45 46 41 47 67 82 93 104 113 136 159 76 76 72 66 53 23 13 7 4 3 3 2 34 45 61 82 79 67 57 50 46 44 36 27 20 15 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 IS 17 18 0 2 4 4 5 8 10 14 16 18 21 24 Other Renewables Total 12 11 10 10 10 11 13 16 20 24 29 34 182 195 206 216 208 190 189 194 203 217 241 265 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.5 3.2 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.5 8.8 0.1 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.6 6.0 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 66.5 102.2 138.3 173.0 207.2 241.8 276.3 310.1 343.9 378.9 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 408 412 416 Grasslands 796 819 859 Energy Biomass 0 3 6 Forest 921 931 922 Others 998 958 920 Total 3123 3123 3123 422 915 7 894 885 3123 417 938 11 877 879 3123 397 374 993 1013 24 36 843 840 3123 3123 337 984 53 907 842 3123 308 960 65 954 837 285 940 71 980 846 260 924 84 981 235 908 97 981 902 3123 3123 3123 3123 )Ogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.39 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.12 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.50 CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 82 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 14.8 HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 3.46 0.19 3.65 91 3.0 6.7 99 13 23 3.39 0.17 3.56 95 3.1 5.5 102 12 17 3.30 0.09 3.39 105 3.5 4.8 101 11 13 3.42 0.03 3.45 113 3.8 4.4 102 10 13 3.41 0.05 3.47 117 3.8 3.5 101 8 11 3.44 -0.02 3.43 123 3.9 3.2 100 7 10 3.52 -0.18 3.33 130 4.1 3.7 98 7 11 3.73 -0.29 3.44 141 4.4 4.3 98 7 10 3.95 -0.40 3.55 152 4.6 5.0 97 7 10
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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Page 552 and 553: 544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
Page 560 and 561: 552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
Page 562 and 563: 554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
Page 564 and 565: 556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
Page 566 and 567: 558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
Page 570 and 571: 562 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 580 and 581: 572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 582 and 583: 574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 586 and 587: 578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
Page 588 and 589: 580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591: 582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593: 584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
Page 594 and 595: 586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
Page 596 and 597: 588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
Page 598 and 599: 590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
Page 600 and 601: 592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
Page 602 and 603: 594 Glossary of Terms standards for
Page 605 and 606: XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Page 607: List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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