Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

500 Statistical Table
Scenario В1-АШ
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2726
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 3.0 5.4 9.6 16.7 26.0 40.4 52.5 68.2 85.1 101.7 121.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 17 9 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2
Liquids 17 24 31 41 55 64 75 79 84 88 89 90
Gas 4 10 19 29 46 57 71 70 69 65 57 50
Electricity
Others
4 7 11 16 23 33 48 61 77 89 95 102
Total 40 60 71 97 135 163 198 215 235 245 244 244
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 7 11 16 24 31 41 36 32 28 24 21
Oil 27 33 44 47 51 51 52 52 52 52 53 54
Gas 9 22 39 59 89 106 126 123 121 .' 112 98 86
Nuclear 0 0 1 1 2 5 10 9 9 9
8 8
Biomass 14 18 19 31 45 50 56 63 72 77 79 81
Other Renewables 2 2 3 5 7 13 23 37 61 82 93 105
Total 57 83 115 159 219 257 308 322 346 360 356 355
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.7 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.4 8.4 12.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.6 60.5 86.0 114.5 148.1 183.7 217.8 249.9 278.9 304.4
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382
Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 89 121 124 127 124 115 107
Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1861 1880
Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1526 1461 1432 1403 1379 1360 1342
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
McC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
0.72 1.01 1.48 2.02 2.73 3.20 3.75 3.56 3.39 3.14 2.84 2.56
0.73 0.82 0.65 0.44 -0.10 -0.11 -0.11 -0.08 -0.05 -0.07 -0.12 -0.17
1.45 1.83 2.13 2.46 2.63 3.08 3.63 3.48 3.34 3.08 2.72 2.39
77 85 97 112 128 135 143 141 138 124 101 84
1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1,2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
10.5 12.8 12.2 12.6 17.3 15.0 13.1 10.3 8.1 7.2 7.1 7.0
0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
396 404 425 398 405 436 470 489 508 528 548 569
48 55 60 72 80 79 79 73 67 59 50 42
7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11