Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 475
Marker Scenario A2-ASF
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population MilUon 1222 1530 1974 2417 2846 3578 3862 4250 4458 5025 5394 5526
GNP/GDP (тех) TriUion USS 2.4 3.4 5.1 7.8 11.5 19.3 23.0 30.6 35.4 52.9 74.7 83.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
Non-commercial
EJ
Solids 1 1 3 5 7 8 10 12 13 14 16
Liquids
21 31 45 70 87 104 121 138 155 178 208 238
Gas 5 8 13 24 37 50 64 73 83 89 93 96
Electricity 4 6 9 15 23 32 40 52 64 79 97 115
Otiiers
Total 31 47 69 112 153 193 234 273 313 359 411 464
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 4 7 9 14 24 35 45 92 140 185 228 272
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
24 36 53 82 88 94 100 67 34 14 7 0
8 11 17 29 48 68 87 97 107 114 116 118
0 0 0 1 4 7 9 15 20 28 39 50
0 0 2 5 12 19 25 43 60 74 86 98
Other Renewables
1 2
3 5 7 9 11 13 16 18 21 25
Total 38 56 85 137 184 231 278 327 376 433 498 563
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.6 6.7 9.2
0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.8
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.2 5.3 6.4 7.6
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.4 17.8 38.1
o5.1 100.5 141.6 186.5 236.7 293.7 358.5 432.9 517.9
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
OtUers
Total
Million ha
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.45
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.77
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.23
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 107
N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 1.6
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 16.5
HFC MlC eq. 0 2 19
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 8
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 7
CO MtCO 396 404 448
NMVOC Mt 48 55 60
NOx MtN 7 8 10
2.31
0.85
3.16
132
¡.9
24,4
32
12
10
499
70
14
3.08
0.84
3.92
153
2.2
31.7
49
16
13
603
81
19
3.52
0.78
4.30
171
2.5
32.6
69
21
18
656
89
21
3.96
0.71
4.68
188
2.8
33.5
98
26
23
709
96
24
4.84
0.52
5.36
208
3.1
29.0
139
34
29
758
106
26
5.72
0.32
6.04
229
3.5
24.4
181
39
32
808
115
29
6.70
0.21
6.91
246
3.8
22.1
233
45
37
877
127
32
7.79
0.18
7.97
259
4.1
21.9
295
50
41
968
142
36
8.87
0.16
9.03
272
4.4
21.8
336
52
43
1058
156
40