Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

258 Emission Scenarios
'"MB AiM
—•
AlBASr
Î
—* AlB IMAGE
—>i AlB MESSAGE
—• A.1BMÎMCAM
—• AlC AIM
MC MESSAGE
— AlCMIIsICAM
UGAÍM
—A AIG MESS \0E
I AIT
-•
О
AIG MINICAM
\1 VI MP^CAM
ü
Л
—•
-•
MV2 MINICAM
AITAIM
AITMESSAGE
2070 2090
Figure 5-6a: Standardized global CH4 emissions in the Al family scenarios. The marker scenario is shown with a thick line
without ticks, the globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and the non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see
Table 4-3). In the SPM, AlC and AIG scenarios are merged into one fossil-intensive AlFI scenario group (see also footnote 2).
1200
900
о
-A2G IMAGE
600
О
A2 MIMCAM
в
300
1 - в - A2 Al
MINICAM
Ol . . . . . . .
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Figure 5-6b: Standardized global CH4 emissions in the A2 family scenarios. The marker scenario is shown with a thick line
without ticks, the globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and the non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see
Table 4-3).
5.4.1.4. B2 Scenario Family
CH4 emission trajectories of the В 2 family of scenarios are
located in the middle of the SRES range and (except for the
B2-AIM scenario) follow very similar paths (Figure 5-6d).
Similar emission profiles in B2 scenarios may have different
explanations. The increase in emissions from 1990 to 2100 in
the B2-MESSAGE scenario is predominantiy from landfills
and sewage, with fossil-fuel energy production as the second
major source. However, in the B2-ASF scenario increasing
volumes of CH^ are generated mostiy in the energy and
agricultural sectors. Unlike the rest of the B2 family, the B2-
AIM scenario emissions after 2070 decline because of an
increase in the CH^ recovery rate from energy and waste
management systems.