Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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CONTENTS 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Scenario Taxonomy 4.2.1. Storylines 4.2.2. Scenarios 4.3. Scenario Storylines 4.3.1. Al Storyline and Scenario Family 4.3.2. A2 Storyline and Scenario Family 4.3.3. Bl Storyline and Scenario Family 4.3.4. B2 Storyline and Scenario Family 4.4. Scenario Quantification and Overview 4.4.1. Scenario Terminology 4.4.2. Translation of Storylines into Scenario Drivers 4.4.2.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.2.2. A2 Scenarios 4.4.2.3. Bl Scenarios 4.4.2.4. B2 Scenarios 4.4.3. Population Prospects 4.4.3.1. Al andBl Scenarios 4.4.3.2. A2 Scenarios 4.4.3.3. Harmonized and Other A2 Scenarios 4.4.3.4. B2 Scenarios 4.4.4. Economic Development 4.4.4.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.4.2. Harmonized and Other Al Scenarios 4.4.4.3. A2 Scenarios 4.4.4.4. Harmonized and Other A2 Scenarios 4.4.4.5. Bl Scenarios 4.4.4.6. Haimonized and Other В1 Scenarios 4.4.4.7. B2 Scenarios 4.4.4.8. Harmonized and Other B2 Scenarios 4.4.5. Energy Intensities, Energy Demand, and Stmcture of Energy Use 4.4.5.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.5.2. Harmonized and Other Al Scenarios 4.4.5.3. A2 Scenaiios 4.4.5.4. Harmonized and Other A2 Scenarios 4.4.5.5. ВI Scenarios 4.4.5.6. Hamronized and Other В1 Scenarios 4.4.5.7. B2 Scenarios 169 170 170 174 177 179 180 181 182 183 183 184 187 188 188 189 192 192 193 194 194 194 196 197 197 200 200 200 200 200 201 204 205 4.4.5.8. Harmonized and Other B2 Scenarios 1.4.6. Resource Availability 4.4.6.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.6.2. Al Scenario Groups 4.4.6.3. A2 Scenarios 4.4.6.4. Harmonized and Other A2 Scenarios 4.4.6.5. Bl Scenarios 4.4.6.6. Hannonized and Other В1 Scenarios 4.4.6.7. B2 Scenarios 4.4.6.8. Harmonized and Other B2 Scenarios 1.4.7. Technological Change 4.4.7.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.7.2. Al Scenario Groups 4.4.7.3. A2 Scenarios 4.4.7.4. Bl Scenarios 4.4.7.5. B2 Scenarios 4.4.7.6. Harmonized and Other Scenarios 1-.4.8. Prospects for Future Energy Systems 4.4.8.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.8.2. Al Scenario Groups 4.4.8.3. A2 Scenaiios 4.4.8.4. Harmonized and Other A2 Scenarios 4.4.8.5. ВI Scenarios 4.4.8.6. Harmonized and Other В1 Scenarios 4.4.8.7. B2 Scenarios 4.4.8.8. Harmonized and Other B2 Scenarios 14.9. Land-Use Changes 4.4.9.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.9.2. Harmonized and Other Al Scenarios 4.4.9.3. A2 Scenarios 4.4.9.4. Harmonized and Other A2 Scenarios 4.4.9.5. Bl Scenarios 4.4.9.6. B2 Scenarios 4.4.9.7. Harmonized and Other B2 Scenarios ^.4.10. Environmental Policies 4.4.10.1. Al Scenarios 4.4.10.2. A2 Scenarios 4.4.10.3. Bl Scenarios 4.4.10.4. B2 Scenarios 206 4.5. Regional Scenario Patterns 206 4.6. A Roadmap to the SRES Scenarios 206 206 References 207 207 208 210 210 210 211 211 211 211 211 212 212 214 214 215 215 216 222 223 223 223 223 224 225 225 225 227 228 228 228 228 229 229 229 229 230 230 230 230 232 236
An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. Introduction In Chapter 4 the main characteristics of the scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES scenarios) are presented. These scenarios cover a wide range of driving forces from demographic to social and economic developments, and they encompass a wide range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (see Chapter 5). Chapters 2 and 3 provide an overview and assessment of the scenario literature, the main driving forces of future GHG emissions, and their relationships. How the driving forces are combined to produce a set of scenarios that cover the ranges of GHG emissions from the literature is described in this chapter. Chapters 2 and 3 demonstrate the large uncertainty in the literature that surrounds both future emissions and the possible developments of their underlying driving forces. The uncertainties range from inadequate scientiñc understanding of the problems, through data gaps or lack of data, to the inherent unceitainties of future events in general. Hence altemative scenarios are used to describe the range of possible future emissions. The SRES approach involved the development of a set of four ahemative scenario "families" (see Chapter 1, Section 1.7.2). Each family of SRES scenarios includes a descriptive part (called a "storyline") and a number of altemative interpretations and quantifications of each storyline developed by six different modeling approaches (see also Box 1-1 on terminology). Each storyline describes a demographic, social, economic, technological, and policy future for each of the scenario families. Within each family different scenarios explore variations of global and regional developments and their implications for GHG, ozone precursors, and sulfur emissions. Each of these scenarios is consistent with the broad framework specified by the storyline of the scenario family. Each storyline is basically a short "history" of a possible future development expressed as a combination of key scenario characteristics. These descriptions are styHzed and designed to facilitate specification and further interpretation of scenario quantifications. The storylines identify particular dynamics, visible in the world today, that might have important influences on future GHG emissions. They deliberately explore what might happen if social, economic, technical, and policy developments take a particular direction at the global level; they also pay attention to regional differences and interactions, especially between developing and industiialized countries. The broad consensus among the SRES writing team is that the current literature analysis suggests the future is inherently unpredictable and so views will differ as to which of the storylines and representative scenarios could be more or less likely. Therefore, the development of a single "best guess" or "business-as-usual" scenario is neither desirable nor possible. Nor should the storylines and scenarios be taken as policy recommendations. The storylines represent the playing out of certain social, economic, technological, and environmental paradigms, which will be viewed positively by some people and negatively by others. The SRES writing team decided on four storylines - an even number helps to avoid the impression of a "central" or "most likely" case. The team wanted more than two storylines to help illustrate that the future depends on many different underlying dynamics; the team wanted no more than four to avoid complicating the process with too many alternatives. The scenarios cover a wide range of, but not all possible, futures. In particular, it was decided that possible "suфrises" would not be considered and that there would be no "disaster" scenarios. The team decided to carry out sensitivity tests within some of the storylines by considering altemative scenarios with different fossil-fuel reserves, rates of economic growth, or rates of technical change. These sensitivity analyses resulted in groups of scenarios within a given scenario family and alternative scenario interpretations within a scenario group or family (see Section 4.2 below for a description of scenario terminology and taxonomy). The tities of the storylines are deliberately simple - Al, A2, Bl, and B2. There is no particular order among the storytines (they are listed alphabetically). Figure 4-1 shows that the SRES scenarios build on the main driving forces of GHG emissions. Each scenario family is based on a common specification of the main driving forces. All four storylines and scenario families describe future worlds that are generally more affluent compared to the current situation. They range from very rapid economic growth and technologic change to high levels of environmental protection, from low-to-high global populations, and from high-to-low GHG emissions. Perhaps more importantiy, all the storylines describe dynamic changes and transitions in generally different directions. The storylines do not include specific climatechange policies, but they do include numerous other socioeconomic developments and non-climate environmental policies. As time progresses, the storylines diverge from each other in many of their characteristic features. In this way they span the relevant range of GHG emissions and different combinations of their main sources. After the basic features and driving forces for each of the four storylines had been determined, the team quantified the storylines into individual scenarios with the help of formal (computer) models. While the writing team and the modeling groups included experts from around the world, all six modeling groups are based in Europe, North America, and Japan. As indicated above, each model quantification of a storyline constitutes a scenario, and all scenarios of one storyline constitute a "scenario family." The six models are representative of different approaches to emissions-scenario modeling and different integrated assessment frameworks in the literature, and include so-called top-down and bottom-up models. The use of different models reflects the SRES Terms of Reference call for méthodologie pluralism and for an open process (see Appendix I). The number and type of models chosen in the open process was on a voluntary basis. In January 1997 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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An Overview of Scenarios 221 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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