Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-MESSAGE World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.8 57.0 91.3 135.4 187.1 254.1 322.9 393.2 469.6 550.0 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.4 45.7 67.2 98.7 139.0 186.4 246.8 313.2 382.0 456.6 535.0 Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 38 27 19 16 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 42 56 72 82 89 79 72 68 60 55 44 26 Liquids 111 126 158 200 265 353 461 569 641 672 704 685 Gas 41 47 61 76 95 106 110 118 116 119 104 93 Electricity 35 46 62 93 145 209 292 395 493 588 668 726 Others 8 U 20 34 53 70 89 118 143 164 187 213 Total 275 313 393 501 656 824 1031 1268 1453 1.599 1706 1743 Primary Energy EJ Coal 91 112 146 194 261 353 463 601 750 872 985 1062 Oil 128 155 172 190 210 209 209 202 170 112 78 56 Gas 71 80 107 149 207 247 283 297 254 207 144 118 Nuclear 7 8 11 21 41 79 127 191 265 348 415 432 Biomass 46 44 52 68 95 133 178 228 287 330 359 376 Other Renewables 8 13 23 37 57 82 117 166 205 234 258 281 Total 352 411 511 659 870 1102 1377 1685 1931 2103 2239 2325 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.5 8.1 11.6 16.2 22.3 29.8 38.5 48.4 Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.7 10.8 12.9 14.9 16.6 17.7 18.5 Gas 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.2 8.6 11.5 14.4 17.0 19.0 20.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 170.5 274.9 401.9 558.5 747.4 972.8 1231.9 1513.7 1812.7 2127.0 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use ^ Cropland Grasslands Etiergy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1459 1466 1462 1457 1454 1448 1442 1436 1429 1424 1422 1420 3389 3404 3429 3446 3458 3478 3498 3525 3552 3568 3572 3576 0 0 0 74 158 288 418 492 566 581 538 495 4296 4237 4173 4164 4164 4177 4190 4194 4199 4202 4203 4204 3805 3842 3886 3807 3715 -3558 3400 3301 3203 3173 3213 3253 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.61 10.97 Other C02 ' GtC 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.26 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.65 11.23 CH4 total ^ MtCH4 310 323 365 427 N20 total = MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 6.1 6.1 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 77.3 102.4 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 CO MtCO 879 877 1005 1165 NMVOC Mt 139 141 166 194 NOx MtN 31 32 39 48 14.04 0.12 14.17 505 6.2 121.0 369 61 66 1415 221 62 17.11 0.05 17.16 552 6.3 126.0 482 77 99 1805 259 77 20.64 -0.02 20.62 606 6.3 120.2 566 89 119 2277 310 94 24.50 -0.03 24.47 628 6.3 106.2 654 97 127 2758 359 111 27.37 -0.03 27.33 639 6.2 97.9 659 106 113 3217 393 124 29.05 -0.03 29.03 652 6.2 79.6 654 114 88 3547 408 134 .30.79 -0.01 30.78 662 6.2 67.0 639 119 84 3772 405 142 32.07 0.00 32.07 672 6.2 49.8 614 115 95 3766 373 151 Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIMAI marker land-use data, a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run. b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data), c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run), d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run. e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.
Statistical Table 417 Scenario AIC-MESSAGE OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 ¡089 1098 ¡108 ¡¡¡0 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.6 31.6 38.7 46.8 55.7 65.7 77.2 90.8 106.6 ¡24.3 14.1 17.8 22.1 27.4 33.7 40.8 48.6 57.4 67.6 79.7 93.6 109.4 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 U 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 70 74 74 75 80 87 93 100 98 102 102 09 28 34 35 39 37 34 29 30 27 21 15 99 29 36 44 53 61 75 90 ¡06 ¡24 141 ¡58 1 1 4 8 11 18 24 30 34 37 42 47 124 1-38 155 164 181 197 220 242 269 285 306 322 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 38 46 57 69 80 91 97 102 ¡25 ¡44 183 223 72 83 81 72 60 46 39 34 29 20 15 12 33 41 50 60 70 69 75 75 83 75 59 37 6 7 8 10 13 27 41 56 59 64 65 60 6 7 6 7 10 14 20 25 28 33 39 44 Other Renewables Total 4 5 9 12 15 19 26 37 44 48 54 58 159 188 211 228 249 267 299 329 368 383 414 435 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.8 9.6 11.9 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 3,7 4,2 4.6 4.9 5.2 5,4 5.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2,6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.4 7.0 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 67.0 104.2 143.6 184,0 225,0 267.9 315.8 368.8 427,3 493.4 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use ' Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 3.56 356 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88 Я 1 1050 ¡053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 0 I 1061 1054 1050 838 833 828 814 798 765 1049 733 712 691 685 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 695 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 355 846 75 1048 705 3029 Fossil Fuel C02 > GtC 2.83 3.20 3.57 3.82 Other C02 " GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.6¡ 3.83 CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 74 76 N20 total " MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 SOx total MtS 22.7 ¡7.0 ¡4.9 22.7 HFC MtC eq. ¡9 58 ¡¡0 108 PFC MtC eq. ¡8 13 13 1¡ SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 CO MtCO ¡79 161 173 ¡67 NMVOC Mt 42 36 38 36 NOx MtN ¡3 ¡2 14 ¡5 4.05 0.00 4.05 80 2.4 25.3 ¡¡5 9 б ¡62 33 ¡5 4.04 -0.02 4.02 85 2,4 20,2 ¡¡8 ¡88 8 7 34 15 4.22 -0.04 4.18 92 2.4 ¡4.0 ¡22 9 9 220 35 ¡6 4.41 0.00 4.41 101 2.4 7.0 123 10 11 241 38 16 5,¡O 0.05 5.¡5 ¡¡4 2.4 8.2 123 ¡2 13 266 44 20 5.39 0.06 5.45 126 2.4 2,1 124 13 16 267 43 22 6,23 0,04 6.27 147 2.4 3,9 125 14 18 27¡ 39 25 6.94 0.01 6.95 164 2.4 5.6 ¡25 ¡6 20 28 ¡ 35 28 Emissions correiated to Umd-use change and deforestation were calcu¡ated by using AIM A¡ marker land-use data a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker ran. b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data), c; C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run), d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run. e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al markei run.
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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