Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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440 Statistical Table Illustrative Scenario AlFI-MlniCAM, ALM previously AlG-MiniCAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 15.4 27.1 42.5 66.9 93.9 123.4 154.2 188.7 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 2 3 5 7 11 15 20 17 16 16 15 14 Liquids 17 22 29 38 49 71 105 138 168 197 192 187 Gas 5 7 10 15 25 32 38 49 60 71 69 66 Electricity 3 6 11 18 37 63 98 141 184 225 254 283 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 27 38 55 78 121 182 261 346 428 509 530 551 Primary Energy EJ Coal 4 6 10 14 31 50 73 80 87 92 95 99 Oil 20 23 30 39 49 73 111 147 180 210 171 132 Gas 7 10 17 27 49 72 95 131 ' 162 189 187 185 Nuclear 0 2 5 7 16 25 35 44 54 65 73 81 Biomass 0 1 1 2 5 8 12 18 22 25 31 38 Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 15 21 29 44 58 71 85 99 Total 35 48 70 102 165 249 355 464 563 652 643 634 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.2 4.0 5.0 5.9 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 4.2 5.9 7.8 9.5 U.3 Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.6 10.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.1 60.6 91.9 133.2 186.4 252.2 329.4 416.5 506.9 594.6 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 391 363 348 344 335 322 305 274 242 208 181 154 Grasslands 1510 1594 1727 1907 2104 2260 2376 2294 2168 1998 1869 1740 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 23 31 29 46 63 Forest 3641 3591 3480 3307 3118 2968 2857 2949 3100 3309 3451 3593 Others 1957 1883 1800 1707 1672 1637 1662 1655 1663 1688 1746 1805 Total 7499 7432 7354 7265 7229 7210 7206 7196 7204 7232 7293 7355 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.72 1.01 1.30 1.73 2.66 3.91 5.48 6.86 8.13 9.27 9.43 9.58 0.73 0.82 0.72 0.95 0.92 0.77 0.50 0.32 0.12 -0.09 -0.53 -0.96 1.45 1.83 2.02 2.68 3.58 4.68 5.98 7.18 8.25 9.18 8.90 8.62 77 85 90 100 124 141 150 162 170 173 168 162 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3 10.5 12.8 14.9 16.1 18.6 21.5 24.7 17.9 13.8 12.4 12.4 12.4 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26 396 404 420 448 506 601 714 783 925 1117 1016 975 48 55 60 66 76 91 110 121 127 138 128 119 7 8 9 It 15 19 25 30 35 38 35 33
Statistical Table 441 Scenario AIT-AIM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6117 6805 7493 8182 8439 8704 8538 8375 8030 7528 7056 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.6 37.7 56.3 89.2 127.4 182.0 235.8 305.5 378.2 447.3 529.0 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 50 48 34 27 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 36 36 46 59 76 76 76 58 45 35 29 24 Liquids 11! 118 130 148 177 205 239 260 283 299 305 311 Gas 51 58 84 113 146 167 191 200 210 219 227 235 Electricity 38 48 63 82 115 180 282 370 484 573 614 657 Others Total 285 307 356 430 532 647 787 901 1032 1128 1176 1226 Primary Energy EJ Coal 93 89 116 142 174 159 146 112 86 68 57 48 Oil 143 158 176 186 183 168 158 141 126 ¡16 ПО ¡04 Gas 73 99 142 190 244 284 336 344 355 366 378 390 Nuclear 6 11 17 27 43 68 116 114 111 110 111 112 Biomass 50 48 38 47 81 120 179 215 258 289 302 315 Other Renewables 10 11 14 20 34 70 151 249 409 550 603 663 Total 376 416 502 611 758 868 1086 1174 1345 1500 1561 1632 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.3 8.1 9.1 10.2 11.1 11.7 12.4 Oi! 0.1 1.6 3.3 5.1 7.0 8.5 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.3 15.4 16.6 Gas 0.1 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.4 11.8 14.7 18.3 22.1 25.7 29.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 171.3 278.0 396.3 515.4 630.1 738.9 839.5 934.0 1025.3 ¡¡13.5 Caibon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 1437 1486 1548 1573 1533 1434 1341 1251 1167 1076 981 895 Grasslands 3290 3289 3481 3846 4193 4145 4098 4062 4027 3964 3875 3788 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 66 328 494 745 813 888 949 993 ¡039 Forest 4249 4122 3965 3801 3709 3786 3864 3898 3932 3980 4042 4106 Others 3966 4046 3948 3655 3179 3033 2894 2908 2922 2966 3039 3114 Total 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.37 9.79 11.28 11.32 11.43 10.49 9.66 9.14 8.85 8.58 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.44 1.73 0.87 0.34 -0.15 0.00 -0.03 0.15 0.12 0.08 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.81 11.52 12.15 11.67 11.28 10.49 9.63 9.29 8.97 8.66 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 393 466 528 509 492 442 397 358 323 291 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 87.4 100.9 91.5 69.3 64.3 46.9 35.7 30.7 29.0 27.4 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 ИЗ 88 84 95 CO MtCO 879 877 1030 1160 1161 1202 1244 1294 1347 1402 1460 1520 NMVOC Mt 139 141 163 188 213 209 206 195 186 167 138 ¡¡4 NOx MtN 31 32 40 49 52 50 49 47 45 43 41 40
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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388 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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490 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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492 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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494 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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