Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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244 Emission Scenarios О о •3 3000 2500 2000 1500 « 1000 -А1ВЛ1М -AlBASF - AJE [M tót -AIB MESSAGE -AlBMfî^lCAM -AIB MARJA -Aie AIM -Л)С MESSAGE AIC MINICAM -AIGAIM - MÛMES'ÎAGE -AtGMINlC\M AlVl \I[NICAA1 - A1V2M[NICAjvl - ^ITAJM - \1T MESSAGE - AITMARJA "A2ASF MM A:ÎO IMAGE ^2 MESSAGE A2 MINICAM A2-\I MINICAM -Bl IM\GE - Bl MM -Bl \SF -Bl MESSAGE Bl MARIA - Bl MIMIC AM -BIT MESS \GE -BIHIGH MESSAGE BIHIGH MINICAM - B2 MESSAGE - B2 MM - 02 \3F - B2 IMAGE -B2 MARIA - B2 MINICAM - B2HIGH MINICAM -B2C MARIA Figure 5-1: Global cumulative CO, emissions in the 40 SRES scenarios, classified into four scenario families (each denoted by a different color code: Al, red; A2, brown; Bl, green; B2, blue). Marker scenarios are shown with thick lines without ticks, globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines. Black lines show percentiles, means, and medians for the 40 SRES scenarios. For numbers on the two additional illustrative scenarios AlFI and AIT see Appendix VII. energy consumption is driven by population size, level of affluence, technological development, environmental concerns, and other factors. The composition of energy supply is determined by estimated reserves of fossil fuel and the availability, relative efficiency, and cost of supply technologies. Emissions from gas flaring and industrial emissions are much lower in comparison with energy-related emissions; for simplification, in this discussion they are added to the latter In 1990, the global emissions from cement made up about 2.5% of the total global COj emissions (Houghton et al., 1995). Figure 5-2 shows standardized carbon emissions from fossil energy and industry for the 40 SRES scenarios. Sample statistics (in terms of percentiles, means, and medians) are indicated against the background of 40 individual scenarios that make up the SRES scenario set. The figure also presents emissions ranges spanned by each of the four scenario famiUes in 2100. SRES scenarios cover a wide range of annual emissions, and the uncertainties in future emission levels increase with time. Up to about the 2040s and the 2050s, emissions tend to rise in all scenarios, albeit at different rates. Across scenarios this reflects changes in the underlying driving forces, such as population, economic output, energy demand, and the share of fossil fuels in energy supply. By 2050, the emissions range covered by the 40 SRES scenarios is from about 9 to 27 GtC, with the mean and median values equal to about 15 GtC. The range between the 25* and 75* percentiles of emissions (the "central tendencies") extends from 12 to 18 GtC (i.e. from twice to thrice that in 1990). Within this interval lie three of the four marker scenarios. However, a fair number of scenarios (eight out of 40) also indicate the possibility of much higher emissions (in the 18 to 27 GtC range) that reflect an increase by a factor of up to 4.5 over 60 years (1990 to 2050). Another eight SRES scenarios have 2050 emissions below the 25* percentile (Figure 5-2). Beyond 2050, the uncertainties in energy and industrial COj emissions continue to increase. By 2100, the range of emissions across the 40 SRES scenarios is between 3 and 37 GtC, which reflects either a decrease to half the 1990 levels or an increase by a factor of six. Emissions between the 25* and 75* percentiles range from 9 to 24 GtC, while the range of the four marker scenarios is even wider, 5 to 29 GtC. The 2100 median and mean of all 40 scenarios are 15.5 and 17 GtC, respectively. As time passes in the scenarios, uncertainties not only increase with respect to absolute levels of COj emissions, but also with
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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Page 247 and 248: Emission Scenarios
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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