Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Scenario Driving
Forces
129
Table 3-4: Primary energy (EJ per year) use by sector and region, 1971 to 1995, and average annual growth rates (AAGR) for
1971 to 1990 and 1990 to 1995. Source: Price et al., 1998, based on lEA, 1997a; lEA, 1997b; BP, 1997 (see Chapter 1 for
definitions of SRES world regions).
1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 AAGR
1971-1990
AAGR
1990-1995
Industrial Sector:
OECD90 48.6 49.3 55.0 52.3 54.3 56.8 0.6% 0.9%
REF 26.0 31.6 34.0 36.9 38.0 26.0 2.0% -7.3%
ASIA 8.8 11.5 15.5 20.0 26.1 34.8 5.9% 5.9%
ALM 4.6 6.2 8.9 10.5 11.0 13.0 4.7% 3.5%
World 88.0 98.5 113.5 119.8 129.4 130.8 2.1% 0.2%
Buildings Sector;
OECD90 44.4 48.9 52.3 56.8 62.3 68.5 1.8% 1.9%
REF 10.7 13.0 18.2 21.0 23.0 16.2 4.1% -6.8%
ASIA 3.6 4.6 5.6 7.9 10.2 12.9 5.7% 4.8%
ALM 2.7 3.7 5.1 6.9 10.1 12.1 7.1% 3.8%
World 61.5 70.3 81.3 92.6 105.6 109.8 2.9% 0.8%
Transport Sector;
OECD90 26.2 29.4 32.5 33.8 39.4 43.3 2.2% 1.9%
REF 6.0 7.3 8.0 9.2 10.0 7.3 2.7% -6.0%
ASIA 2.0 2.4 3.3 4.3 6.0 8.7 5.9% 7.6%
ALM 3.3 4.6 6.3 7.2 7.8 9.6 4.6% 4.2%
World 37.5 43.6 50.1 54.4 63.3 69.0 2.8% 1.7%
Agriculture Sector
OECD90 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.2% 1.6%
REF 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.4 3.0 1.7 4.5% -10.6%
ASIA 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.8% 5.6%
ALM 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6 4.7% 12.6%
World 4.4 5.1 6.1 7.5 8.9 9.3 3.8% 0.8%
All Sectors;
OECD90 121.0 129.3 141.8 145.5 158.8 171.7 1.4% 1.6%
REF 44.0 53.5 62.0 69.5 74.0 51.3 2.8% -7.1%
ASIA 15.4 19.7 26.0 33.9 44.7 59.5 5.8% 5.9%
ALM 11.0 14.9 21.1 25.4 29.8 36.4 5.4% 4.1%
WORLD 191.4 217.5 251.0 274.2 307.2 318.8 2.5% 0.7%
in industrial, commercial, and residential energy consumption.
The relationship between total sector energy use and economic
drivers such as GDP per capita varies across countries depends
upon the sector. In 1995, the relationship in the transport and
buildings sectors was relatively strong and that in the industrial
sector was moderate (Price et ai, 1998). Income elasticities
vary widely among the different types of energy services and
the country or region under consideration. For example, the
income elasticity of refrigerator ownership in most countries in
the IND region (see Chapter 1 for definition of SRES world
regions) is extremely low, as most households already own a
refrigerator. The elasticity is much higher in medium-income
countries in which refrigerator ownership is low. Other
economic indicators, such as level of economic development in
the industrial sector and personal consumption expenditures in
residential buildings, are more closely correlated with energy
use in these sectors.
3.4.2.2. Industry and Agriculture
Driving forces behind energy use and carbon emissions in the
industrial sector include the state of economic development,
consumption and trade pattems, relative costs of labor, capital,
and energy, and availability of resources. In 1990, industry
accounted for 42% (129 EJ) of global primary energy use.
Between 1971 and 1990, industrial energy use grew at a rate of
2.1 % per year, slightly less than the world total energy demand
growth of 2.5% per year. This growth rate has slowed in recent
years, and was virtually fiat between 1990 and 1995, primarily
because of declines in industrial output in the REF region.