Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-IMAGE OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 799 849 890 932 965 990 1001 1005 1009 1020 1029 1032 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.5 20.2 26.9 35.6 44.3 53.0 62.4 71.3 77.9 88.7 101.2 114.6 1990 USS/cap = 20648.9 23840.3 30131.7 38187.4 45863.7 53609.2 62283.6 70840.8 77152.1 87018.1 98251.1 111071.1 Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 Solids 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Liquids 57 62 68 71 67 61 53 49 47 46 44 42 Gas 24 27 30 31 32 35 40 43 45 49 52 55 Electricity 24 36 52 66 74 76 76 76 75 76 77 78 Others 2 3 5 10 16 22 26 27 27 26 26 26 Total 120 141 168 191 203 207 208 207 207 209 212 214 Primary Energy EJ Coal 37 47 51 51 51 48 46 42 37 35 32 30 Oil 67 76 84 88 84 67 65 60 57 56 54 50 Gas 28 36 46 52 51 51 53 55 56 58 61 64 Non-Fossil Electric 7 12 19 29 36 40 42 45 46 48 51 54 Biomass 9 3 5 10 16 23 25 28 28 27 28 24 Other Renewables 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Total 151 183 216 240 248 240 242 240 236 235 237 233 Cumulative Resources Production ZJ *> Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.7 Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.3 5.5 6.7 7.9 9.1 Gas 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.5 98.2 130.4 162.3 194.4 226.5 258.8 291.4 324.2 357.4 Cai-bon Sequestration = GtC 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 Land Use Million ha Cropland
Statistical Table 393 Scenario AlB-IMAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 REF Population Million 412 429 437 443 445 443 432 419 401 384 365 347 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.0 0.7 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.9 9.2 13.0 17.2 22.7 28.4 34.3 l990US$/cap'> 2307.2 1657.3 2378.6 4378.7 7868.6 13380.5 21343.7 30936.4 42882.5 59159.7 7774Í.4 98993.7 Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 Solids 14 10 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 Liquids 21 12 12 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 и Gas 15 II 10 12 12 И II 10 10 10 9 с Electricity 9 5 7 15 22 30 34 34 32 3! 29 Others 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total 62 41 40 50 59 68 71 70 67 63 59 5e Primary Energy EJ Coal 36 19 15 16 20 27 28 25 22 18 15 11 Oil 28 14 16 20 23 26 30 29 27 25 23 20 Gas 25 15 16 23 27 28 25 22 20 17 17 13 Non-Fossil Electric J 1 1 3 6 9 И U 12 12 12 12 Biomass I 1 I 2 3 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 Other Renewables 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total 95 52 52 67 82 99 103 98 90 84 77 70 Cumulative Resources Production ZJ Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 Í.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.4 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.4 31.0 41.3 53.0 66.7 80.8 94.3 107.7 12Û.7 133.2 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 Land Use Million ha Cropland 278 223 229 227 224 218 207 199 189 179 169 164 Grasslands " 392 307 329 339 333 310 279 258 238 234 226 221 Energy Biomass 1 0 1 6 19 46 84 87 92 83 83 92 Forest 1146 1174 1167 1250 1242 1238 1238 1233 1227 1226 1218 1200 Others 461 574 551 455 460 466 471 501 532 556 582 600 Total 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 2278 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.91 LU 1.31 1.61 1.61 1.41 1.31 1.21 LOI 0.91 Other C02 f GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.09 -0.27 -0.30 -0.18 -0.03 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.35 Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.90 1.02 1.04 1.31 1.43 i.38 1..33 1.36 1.25 1.26 CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 41 51 57 58 52 52 51 47 43 40 N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 9.4 9.7 9.6 10.6 10.6 9.9 8.9 7.8 6.8 5.8 HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31 PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24 SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 U CO MtCO 69 41 34 38 45 52 55 56 56 56 54 52 NMVOC Mt 16 13 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 U 11 NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 a: NOT ppp-corrected. b: NOT use but production. c: Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). d: Arable land for crops excluding energy crops and grass & fodder species, e: Permanent pasture: FAO category -'land for grass & fodder species", f: Approximate calculation from complex land-use module.
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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Page 367 and 368: Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Page 381 and 382: Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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Page 420 and 421: 412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
Page 424 and 425: 416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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446 Statistical Table Illustrative
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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