Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

An Overview of Scenarios 173
• Degree to which human and natural resources are
mobilized globally and regionally to achieve multiple
development objectives of each storyline.
• Balance of economic, social, technological, or
environmental objectives in the choices made by
consumers, governments, enterprises, and other
stakeholders.
Thus, the storyliires describe developments in many different
economic, technical, environmental, and social dimensions.
Consequently, they occupy a multidimensional space and no
simple metric can be used to classify them. Even though they
occupy such a multidimensional space along many driving
forces relevant for GHG emissions, it is useful here to highlight
just two dimensions. The fnst refers to the extent of economic
convergence and social and cultural interactions across the
regions and the second to the balance between economic
objectives and environmental and equity objectives. Possible
names for these two dimensions could be "globalization" (Box
4-3) and "sustainability," respectively (Box 4-4). As these two
expressions are not necessarily viewed by everyone as being
value-free, the two dimensions could alternatively be
designated simply as a more global or more regional
orientation and as a more economic or a more environmental
orientation (see Figure 4-1). These dimensions are important in
the SRES scenarios. Nevertheless, there was considerable
resistance in the SRES writing team against such a simplistic
classification of storylines, so it is presented here for
illustrative purposes only. These distinctions are, in a sense,
artificial. For example, both economic and environmental
objectives are pursued in all scenarios, albeit with different
levels of relative emphasis.
The extent to which the currently observed global and regional
orientations will prevail in the 2P' century is pertinent to the
distinction between the Al and Bl scenario families on one
side and A2 and B2 families on the other side. While the Al
and Bl storylines, to different degrees, emphasize successful
Box 4-3: Globalization Issues
With Ihe convergence ш governments' economic policies m the
1990s, combined with the rapid development of communication
networks, it is perhaps not surprising that an extensive poll of
scenarios by the Millennium Institute suggested "globalization"
as the main driving force that will shape the future (Gleim and
Gordon, 1997,1999). However, some scenarios in the hterature
explore the possibiUty that unfettered markets, usually seen as
an mtegral element of "globalization," might destabilize society
in ways that endanger the process (Mohan Rao, 1998). In
UNESCO's 1998 Worid Culture Report, it is noted that
communities are increasingly emphasizing their cultural
individuality; meanwhile, communication and travel are
resultmg in interactions between communities that result m the
evolution of new "local" cultures (UNESCO, 1998).
Huntington (1996) asserts that continental regional cultures
may determine the shape of future geopolitical developments
rather than globahzation.
Box 4-4: Sustainability Issues
Recent decades have seen considerable growth in discourse
of environmental and social issues, represented at the global
level by several high-level United Nations (UN) meetings on
social and economic development and environmental
sustainability (UNCED, 1992; UN, 1994,1995; Leach, 1998;
Mnnasinghe and Swart,2000). The range of participants has
expanded from the most closely involved govertmient
ministries, businesses, and envirormiental NGOs to include a
broad range of representation by different ministries, local
government, businesses, professions, and community groups.
Increased interest in sustainability issues can lead to all kinds
of socio-economic and technological changes that may not be
aimed explicitly at reducing GHG emissions, but which may
in effect contribute significantly to such reductions.
economic global convergence and social and cultural
interactions, A2 and B2 focus on a blossoming of diverse
regional development pathways (see Box 4-3).
The extent to which the currentiy observed economic and
environmental orientations will prevail in the 2P' century is
pertinent to the distinction between Al and A2 scenario
families on one side and Bl and B2 scenario families on the
other side. In the Bl and B2 storylines this transition is
pursued, to different degrees, through a successful translation
of global concerns into local actions to promote environmental
sustainability. Altematively, in the Al and A2 storyhnes the
emphasis remains, again to different degrees, on sustained
economic development and achievement of high levels of
affluence throughout the world, where environmental priorities
are perceived as less important than those of economic
development (see Box 4-4).
In short, each of the storylines can be summarized as follows:
• The AI storyline and scenario family describes a future
world of very rapid economic growth, low population
growth, and the rapid inttoduction of new and more
efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are
convergence among regions, capacity building, and
increased cultural and social interactions, with a
substantial reduction in regional differences in per
capita income. The AI scenario family develops into
four groups that describe altemative directions of
technological change in the energy system.'
' During the approval process of the Summary for Policymakers at
the 5th Session of WGIII of the IPCC from 8-11 March 2000 in
Katmandu, Nepal, it was decided to combine two of thiese groups (
AlC and AIG) into one "fossil intensive" group AlFI, in contrast to
the non-fossil group AIT, and to select two illustrative scenarios
from these two Al groups to facilitate use by modelers and policy
makers. This leads to six scenario groups that constitute the four
scenario families, three of which are in the Al family. All scenarios
are equally sound.