Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenarios grouped by cumulative emissions Low Medium-Low Medium-High High Cumulative Emission 1990-2100, GtC Figure SPM-4: Total global cumulative COj emissions (GtC) from 1990 to 2100 (SP]V[-4a) and histogram of their distribution by scenario groups (SPM-4b). No probability of occurrence should be inferred from the distribution of SRES scenarios or those in the literature. Both figures show the ranges of cumulative emissions for the 40 SRES scenarios. Scenarios are also grouped into four cumulative emissions categories; low, medium-low, medium-high, and high emissions. Each category contains one illustrative marker scenario plus alternatives that lead to comparable cumulative emissions, although often through different driving forces. This categorization can guide comparisons using either scenarios with different driving forces yet similar emissions, or scenarios with similar driving forces but different emissions. The cumulative emissions of the IS92 scenarios are also shown.
Summary for Policymakers 9 What is the range of GHG emissions in the SRES scenarios and how do they relate to driving forces? The SRES scenarios cover most of the range of carbon dioxide (CO^; see Figures SPM-2a and SPM-2b), other GHGs, and sulfur emissions found in the recent literature and SRES scenario database. Their spread is similar to that of the IS92 scenarios for CO^ emissions from energy and industry as well as total emissions but represents a much wider range for landuse change. The six scenario groups cover wide and overlapping emission ranges. The range of GHG emissions in the scenarios widens over time to capture the long-term uncertainties reflected in the literature for many of the driving forces, and after 2050 widens significantly as a result of different socio-economic developments. Table SPM-2b summarizes the emissions across the scenarios in 2020, 2050, and 2100. Figure SPM-3 shows in greater detail the ranges of total emissions for the six scenario groups of scenarios that constitute the four families (the three scenario families A2, Bl, and B2, plus three groups within the Al family AlFI, AIT, and AlB). Some SRES scenarios show trend reversals, turning points (i.e., initial emission increases followed by decreases), and crossovers (i.e., initially emissions are higher in one scenario, but later emissions are higher in another scenario). Emission trend reversals (see Figures SPîvl-2 and SPM-3) depart from historical emission increases. In most of these cases, the upward emissions trend due to income growth is more than compensated by productivity improvements combined with a slowly growing or declining population. In many SRES scenarios CO2 emissions from loss of forest cover peak after several decades and then gradually decline'' (Figure SPM-lb). This pattern is consistent with scenarios in the literature and can be associated with slowing population growth, followed by a decline in some scenarios, increasing agricultural productivity, and increasing scarcity of forest land. These factors allow for a reversal of the current trend of loss of forest cover in many cases. Emissions decline fastest in the В1 family. Only in the A2 family do net anthropogenic COj emissions from land use change^ remain positive through 2100. As was the case for energy-related emissions, CO2 emissions related to land-use change in the Al family cover the widest range. The diversity across these scenarios is amplified through the high economic growth, increasing the range of alternatives, and through the different modeling approaches and their treatment of technology. Total cumulative SRES carbon emissions from all sources through 2100 range from approximately 770 GtC to approximately 2540 GtC. According to the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), "any eventual stabilised concentration is governed more by the accumulated ' In the new scenarios no feedback effect of future climate change on emissions from the biosphere has been assumed. anthropogenic COj emissions from now until the time of stabilisation than by the way emissions change over the period." Therefore, the scenarios are also grouped in the report according to their cumulative emissions.^ (see Figure SPM-4). The SRES scenarios extend the IS92 range toward higher emissions (SRES maximum of 2538 GtC compared to 2140 GtC for IS92), but not toward lower emissions. The lower bound for both scenario sets is approximately 770 GtC. Total anthropogenic methane (CH^) and nitrous oxide (N^O) emissions span a wide range by the end of the 2P' century (see Figures SPM-5 and SPM-6 derived from Figures 5.5 and 5.7). Emissions of these gases in a number of scenarios begin to decline by 2050. The range of emissions is wider than in the IS92 scenarios due to the multimodel approach, which leads to a better treatment of uncertainties and to a wide range of driving forces. These totals include emissions from land use, energy systems, industry, and waste management. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from land use are limited in Al and Bl families by slower population growth followed by a decline, and increased agricultural productivity. After the initial increases, emissions related to land use peak and decline. In the B2 family, emissions continue to grow, albeit very slowly. In the A2 family, both high population growth and less rapid increases in agricultural productivity result in a continuous rapid growth in those emissions related to land use. The range of emissions of HFCs in the SRES scenario is generally lower than in earlier IPCC scenarios. Because of new insights about the availability of alternatives to HFCs as replacements for substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol, initially HFC emissions are generally lower than in previous IPCC scenarios. In the A2 and B2 scenario families HFC emissions increase rapidly in the second half of the this century, while in the A2 and B2 scenario families the growth of emissions is significantly slowed down or reversed in that period. Sulfur emissions in the SRES scenarios are generally below the IS92 range, because of structural changes in the energy system as well as concerns about local and regional air pollution. These reflect sulfur control legislation in Europe, North America, Japan, and (more recenüy) other parts of Asia and other developing regions. The timing and impact of these changes and controls vary across scenarios and regions^. After ^ In this Report, cumulative emissions are calculated by adding annual net anthropogenic emissions in the scenarios over their time horizon. When relating these cumulative emissions to atmospheric concentrations, all natural processes that affect carbon concentrations in the atmosphere have to be taken into account. ' Although global emissions of SO^ for the SRES scenarios are lower than the IS92 scenarios, uncertainty about SOj emissions and their effect on sulfate aerosols has increased compared to the IS92 scenarios because of very diverse regional pattems of SO2 emissions in the scenarios.
Page 2 and 3: E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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Page 6 and 7: Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
Page 8 and 9: Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
Page 10 and 11: C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
Page 12 and 13: 4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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Page 18 and 19: lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Page 24 and 25: 16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
Page 26 and 27: 18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
Page 28 and 29: Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
Page 30 and 31: CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
Page 32 and 33: 24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
Page 34 and 35: 26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
Page 36 and 37: 28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
Page 38 and 39: 30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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Page 42 and 43: 34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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Page 46 and 47: 38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
Page 48 and 49: 40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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