Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
565
Marker Scenario B2-MESSAGE
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1511 1872 2263 2649 2992 3289 3554 3764 3931 4053 4139
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 3.7 5.5 8.8 14.6 22.8 32.6 42.6 51.4 59.3 66.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 4.9 6.2 8.2 11.7 17.0 23.9 32.4 41.2 49.6 57.2 64.9
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 11 11 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3
Solids 1 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 5
Liquids 17 23 30 37 46 53 61 71 76 83 95 93
Gas 4 5 8 10 14 19 28 34 42 48 48 52
ElecDicity 3 5 7 11 16 28 40 54 70 86 102 119
Others 0 1 3 4 8 12 17 21 25 30 32 35
Total 39 47 61 75 95 120 152 186 219 255 284 306
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 14 24 37 58
Oil 21 32 40 42 50 51 50 50 36 25 18 14
Gas 8 11 18 27 41 62 87 111 132 150 155 133
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 13 20 26 32 39
Biomass 14 13 14 17 20 28 36 46 64 86 HI 132
Other Renewables 2 3 6 8 13 23 32 40 47 53 58 62
Total 49 63 81 100 131 172 217 267 314 364 411 437
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 LO 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.6 8.1
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 36.5 55.5 75.0 96.3 120.0 147.2 177.7 210.7 246.0 282.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Million ha
Cropland 371 389 397 405 413 421 429 438 446 455 464 474
Grasslands 1680 1676 1689 1699 1709 1725 1741 1754 1766 1777 1787 1797
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 7 48 100 151 164 177 179 170 161
Forest 1745 1717 1699 1692 1701 1721 1740 1752 1765 1777 1790 1803
Others 1684 1698 1695 1676 1608 1513 1419 1372 1326 1292 1269 1246
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 ^ GtC 0.72 1.01 1.26 1.48 1.88 2.24 2.60 3.04 3.27 3.55 3.79 3.84
Other C02 = GtC 0.73 0.82 0.63 0.42 0.12 0.01 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.12 -0.16 -0.20
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.90 1.90 2.01 2.25 2.49 2.94 3.17 3.43 3.63 3.64
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 94 102 112 129 149 162 175 187 193 200
N20 total = MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.4 1.5.2 16.7 17.8 19.4 20.0 19.6 19.1 18.0 17.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 12 20 32 54 84 120 157 190 211 223
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 7 10 14 20 27 33 37 39 39 37
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 5 7 9 20 16 17 15 11 13 14
CO MtCO 396 404 416 427 445 492 542 616 728 860 992 1075
NMVOC Mt 48 55 65 72 78 81 83 86 82 80 77 75
NOx MtN 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 19 20 20
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B2 run.
b;C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data).
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-B2 run).
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-B2 run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from A1M-B2 run.