Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 OECD90 Population Million 859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.5 25.3 31.0 38.0 45.3 54.1 64.0 75.7 89.0 103.9 121.2 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 6 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 10 10 14 23 31 31 30 26 23 21 19 17 Liquids 64 74 80 87 92 94 96 97 97 102 111 121 Gas 25 31 39 39 37 37 36 36 36 37 39 41 Electricity 22 27 35 42 49 59 68 85 103 118 133 148 Others 0 0 0 0 Tota! 127 143 168 192 210 220 231 245 259 279 303 327 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 41 76 34 5 6 42 89 45 8 1 60 79 102 118 137 148 161 176 196 218 94 97 87 70 56 44 35 30 27 24 54 50 46 45 44 42 .41 41 43 46 U 15 18 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 0 2 6 11 22 28 36 42 44 46 Other Renewables Total 6 167 191 7 9 12 17 24 38 58 78 91 105 226 251 271 281 304 323 354 391 426 466 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.0 6.2 7.8 1 0 9.6 11.4 13.6 1.8 2.8 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.6 6.9 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 )7.8 108.7 155.0 205.1 258.4 312.9 366.6 420.6 477.3 538.0 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) 410 787 0 1056 886 3140 404 758 0 1065 912 3140 389 751 0 1102 897 3140 373 785 0 1131 85! 3140 345 817 47 1168 762 3140 329 825 69 1174 737 3140 314 834 100 1179 713 3140 285 812 112 1217 710 3140 259 791 124 1257 706 3140 227 757 137 1304 709 3140 192 711 149 1360 719 3140 163 668 162 1418 729 3140 Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 Other C02 GtC 0.00 Total C02 GtC 2.83 CH4 total MtCH4 73 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 SOx total MtS 22.7 HFC MtC eq. 19 PFC MtC eq. 18 SF6 MtC eq. 23 CO MtCO 179 NMVOC Mt 42 NOx MtN 13 3.20 0.00 3.20 74 2.6 17.0 58 13 23 161 36 12 3.89 -0.12 3.78 71 2.5 11.5 110 13 14 186 39 12 4.44 -0.04 4.40 73 2.7 9.0 108 И 5 213 40 13 4.94 -0.09 4.85 76 2.6 10.0 115 9 6 241 39 12 5.19 -0.02 5.16 73 2.5 10.9 118 8 7 256 33 10 5.45 5.42 0.05 -0.01 5.50 5.41 69 68 2.4 2.2 12.0 12.5 122 123 9 10 9 11 271 277 29 21 5.39 -0.06 5.33 66 2.0 13.1 123 12 13 284 14 9 5.58 -0.10 5.47 65 1.8 13.9 124 13 16 300 11 6.00 -0.13 5.86 62 1.7 15.0 125 14 18 329 11 10 6.44 -0.16 6.28 60 1.7 16.1 125 16 20 359 10 1!
Statistical Table 413 Scenario AlC-AIM REF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.8 5.3 8.1 12.3 15.5 19.4 23.8 28.5 34,1 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy gj Non-commercial 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 9 7 10 14 18 18 19 17 14 12 11 10 Liquids 19 9 8 8 8 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 Gas 19 11 14 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 23 Electncity 8 9 11 12 15 22 29 36 43 49 53 57 Others 0 0 0 0 Total 58 40 43 48 55 65 76 82 89 95 102 109 Primary Energy EJ Coal 18 16 22 27 39 57 84 98 115 131 145 160 Oil 22 12 10 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 Gas 26 17 18 17 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 Nuclear 1 1 2 3 5 7 9 10 10 10 11 11 Biomass 2 4 0 0 1 3 5 7 8 10 10 11 Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 4 10 15 24 32 36 40 Total 70 52 54 57 68 90 125 146 173 198 216 237 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.0 4.1 5.3 6.7 8.3 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 22.5 34.2 47.8 64.4 85.6 110.8 139.2 171.2 207.3 248.2 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 279 284 297 299 305 293 282 267 253 233 210 189 Grasslands 346 357 401 468 556 571 586 585 584 571 548 525 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 6 11 22 25 29 38 55 80 Forest 960 961 950 950 944 950 955 966 978 993 1010 1028 Others 720 703 658 588 494 477 460 460 460 464 474 483 Total 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.09 1.22 1.45 1.86 2.39 2.69 3.03 3.42 3,88 4.39 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0,04 -0.05 Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.12 1.23 1.48 1.86 2.38 2.67 3.00 3.39 3,84 4.34 CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 50 62 77 80 84 91 99 103 105 106 N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0,5 0.5 SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 14.7 15.6 16.1 12.7 10.0 9.9 9.7 10.6 12,6 14.8 HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31 PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24 SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11 CO MtCO 69 41 40 42 46 50 54 57 59 63 68 75 NMVOC Mt 16 13 14 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 NOx MtN 5 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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