Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

An Overview of the Scenario Literature 99
100
MERQE/EMF14
LtcldTEMP/STD~^
Figure 2-12: Global decarbonization and
deintensification of energy in the scenarios,
1990 to 2100; energy and carbon intensities
shown as an index (1990 = 1). Some of the
scenarios are identified in the figure. Data
source: Morita and Lee, 1998.
CETA/EMF14, LldTemp
МШ1САМ/ЕМР14
Accel Tecli/STD
11
10
IIASA WECCI,C2
IMAGE2.l,LessBl
Changed Trade-
10 100
Carbon Dioxide Intensity of Energy
(index, 1990=100)
Carbon Dioxide
(60 GtC)
Gross World Product Primary Energy per
Growth Rate
Gross World Product
(3.2 % per year) ( 15 MJ/US$)
median -O- max -O- min
Figure 2-13: Global emissions scenarios in the database and their main driving forces. The minimum, maximum and median
(50* percentile) values for 2100 are shown on seven axes of the heptagon based on the scenarios in the database. The seven
axes show the ranges across the scenarios in 2100 of COj emissions in GtC, population in billions, gross world product in
trilHon US dollars at 1990 prices, gross world product growth rates in percent per year, energy intensity in MJ per US dollar at
1990 prices, primary energy in ZJ (1000 EJ) and carbon intensity in tC per TJ.