Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 517
Scenario Bl-MESSAGE
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 26.0 32.4 38.3 43.9 49.9 55.4 59.8 66.3 73.9 82.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.7 22.4 28.1 33.3 38.3 43.6 48.5 52.5 58.4 65.1 72.7
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 75 73 69 65 61 57 52 44 42 39
Gas 22 28 34 35 33 29 21 14 10 9 7 5
Electricity 22 28 35 43 49 53 54 56 57 60 61 62
Ottiers 1 1 2 5 7 8 9 12 13 13 12 11
Total 124 1.36 152 159 159 154 146 139 131 126 123 117
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 38 33 36 37 31 14 5 4 2 1 1 0
Oil 72 85 83 73 62 53 44 36 29 21 15 12
Gas 33 45 57 68 80 87 84 75 73 77 76 78
Nuclear 6 7 8 10 11 14 21 25 27 24 20 15
Biomass 6 8 10 13 15 18 20 26 31 39 50 53
Other Renewables 4 5 8 13 17 22 24 27 29 31 32 32
Total 159 183 202 213 215 207 198 192 191 192 193 190
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.7 4,5 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.6
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.6 98.3 129.2 L56.4 178.9 198.0 214.7 229.9 243.6 255.9
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use '
Million ha
Cropland 381 380 378 376 374 370 366
Grasslands 760 765 772 779 787 809 832
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 23 33 44
Forest 1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149
Others 838 826 805 770 728 684 639
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
361
862
45
1154
607
3029
357
893
46
1159
574
3029
354
912
45
1167
551
3029
353
918
42
1179
537
3029
352
924
39
1192
522
3029
logenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 > GtC 2.83 3,20 3.40 3.35 3.13 2.60 2.16
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.13 -0.16 -0.14 -0.12
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.32 3.22 2.97 2.46 2.04
CH4 total " MtCH4 73 74 73 70 67 62 57
N20 total = MtN20-N 2,6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
SOx total MtS 22,7 17.0 8.9 2.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7
CO MtCO 179 161 177 181 160 145 125
NMVOC Mt 42 36 38 36 31 27 23
NOx MtN 13 12 14 14 13 10 7
1.84
-0.08
1.76
54
2.2
-0.1
117
7
7
123
21
5
1.63
-0.04
1.58
52
2.2
0.3
117
7
8
121
21
3
1.50
-0.04
1.46
51
2.1
0.6
119
7
8
122
20
9
1.35
-0.08
1.27
50
2.1
0.9
120
7
8
139
14
1
1.31
-0.12
1.19
51
2.1
1.5
120
6
8
134
9
1
Emissions coirelated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B1 emulation ran.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
e; Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.