Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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454 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-MARIA ASIA 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 2642 3080 3425 3728 3861 3895 4008 3814 3632 3368 3040 2744 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.2 2.6 5.8 12.3 20.8 35.9 61.8 80.3 102.5 128.8 159.8 204 1 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 20 18 25 17 12 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 Liquids 26 42 65 97 120 146 168 172 190 200 212 214 Gas 2 3 4 8 16 25 35 41 29 24 17 22 Electiicity 4 9 11 16 19 24 34 41 46 52 59 64 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 52 72 106 139 168 203 243 257 267 277 289 301 Primary Energy EJ Coal 28 24 29 20 14 10 7 5 3 2 2 1 Oil 14 23 36 51 51 72 92 72 56 39 45 41 Gas 3 5 8 14 20 28 38 42 30 25 17 22 Nuclear 1 12 18 26 28 50 55 79 89 103 ¡22 ¡33 Biomass 13 21 31 51 80 81 81 104 137 162 168 174 Other Renewables 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 20 20 20 20 20 Total 61 86 124 163 195 243 293 322 335 352 373 391 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1 2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1 4 0)1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.5 Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 41.5 66.1 90.9 1173 148.0 179.0 205.0 225.8 244.1 261.9 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Miüion ha 366 366 380 380 380 380 380 377 373 336 305 263 431 431 421 423 423 423 384 375 375 375 375 375 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 52 57 93 124 167 365 367 380 388 397 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 458 456 440 430 421 414 412 412 412 4¡2 412 412 1621 1621 1621 1621 ¡621 1621 ¡621 1621 162¡ ¡621 1621 1621 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Othei C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1.15 0.37 1.53 1.78 2.20 2.36 2.31 2.73 321 0.26 0.20 0.¡6 0.12 0.10 0.09 2.03 2.40 2 53 2.44 2.83 3.31 2.82 2.27 1.83 1.81 180 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.00 -О 03 2.89 2.32 1.85 1.80 177 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
Statistical Table 455 Scenario AIT-MARIA ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1348 1699 2071 2449 2720 2836 3192 3231 3259 3190 3029 2864 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.7 3.1 5.5 10.0 17.8 31.7 56.5 71.4 87.9 106.5 124.2 155.9 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liquids 24 33 50 72 86 103 127 132 150 148 171 199 Gas 5 4 6 14 35 54 75 84 59 63 44 31 Electricity 3 6 10 15 21 29 45 53 54 59 65 72 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 35 45 68 103 143 186 247 268 263 270 280 302 Primary Energy EJ Coal 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Oil 18 30 48 71 75 79 84 59 63 44 31 50 Gas 7 12 19 32 51 65 83 90 63 65 46 32 Nuclear 0 0 0 0 23 40 74 105 112 130 151 174 Biomass 8 6 7 11 18 28 46 75 88 105 141 149 Other Renewables 2 2 I 1 1 12 25 24 25 24 24 24 Total 41 53 79 117 170 226 313 353 351 369 392 430 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.6 5.3 5.7 6.0 Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.3 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 38.3 63.7 93.4 125.4 159.9 193.9 224.0 250.6 272.4 292.1 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Million ha Cropland 490 490 639 1026 1195 1238 1370 1141 913 767 627 627 Grasslands 2095 2095 1946 1.559 1390 1352 1352 1352 ¡352 ¡352 ¡352 ¡352 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 229 457 603 742 742 Forest 2202 2204 2207 2218 2241 2268 2274 2274 2274 2274 2274 2274 Others 2086 2084 2081 2070 2047 2014 1878 1878 ¡878 1878 1878 1878 Total 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.72 1.0¡ 1.47 2.09 2.47 2.74 3.12 2.70 2.37 2.03 1.46 ¡.64 0.73 0.82 0.79 0.74 0.64 0.54 0.50 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.42 1.45 1.83 2.26 2.83 3.11 3.28 3.62 3.19 2.84 2.48 ¡.89 2.05 0 2 ¡5 39 8¡ ¡39 ¡84 205 210 210 206 196 4 4 5 9 ¡4 ¡9 23 26 28 30 31 30 3 5 ¡0 ¡4 ¡9 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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Page 412 and 413: 404 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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Page 484 and 485: 476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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504 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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