Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

484 Statistical Table
Scenario A2-MESSAGE
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2791 3295 3801 4308 4779 5500 5764 6137 6333 6858 7214 7340
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.3 7.6 12.6 15.0 20.0 23.1 34.9 50.5 57.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 7.4 10.3 14.3 19.5 27.3 36.8 47.5 57.1 66.1 74.7 79.9
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 24 16 17 17 15 14 12 11 11 10 10 9
Solids 19 19 15 12 9 21 29 28 18 6 4 2
Liquids 13 26 42 61 85 93 105 104 119 133 155 180
Gas 2 4 8 17 21 19 26 46 43 53 49 45
Electricity 4 6 10 17 25 35 46 58 75 96 114 131
Others 1 4 7 11 17 25 35 44 53 62 71 78
Total 62 75 100 135 172 207 252 291 319 360 402 445
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 30 27 33 42 54 82 104 128 187 235 310 390
Oil 15 31 47 67 86 80 71 47 27 16 10 4
Gas 3 7 15 23 27 23 29 50 47 56 49 41
Nuclear 0 1 2 3 5 8 13 17 22 29 34 39
Biomass 24 21 24 29 36 47 63 77 77 79 82 84
Other Renewables 1 3 6 9 14 22 31 42 57 73 81 90
Total 74 90 125 173 222 262 312 361 417 489 566 648
Cumulative Resources (Jse
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.9 9.4 12.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.3
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 42.6 72.8 110.7 154.8 203.5 256.9 318.0 390.9 478.9 585.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 » GtC 1.15 1.78 2.36 3.16 3.93 4.48 4.97 5.48 6.61 7.90 9.72 11.69
Other C02 ь GtC 0.37 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.22 0.17 0.12 0.09 0.05 0.01 -0.03 -0.08
Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.62 3.42 4.15 4.66 5.10 5.57 6.66 7.91 9.69 11.62
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 153 190 232 283 319 356 394 444 487 523
N20 total MtN20-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 27.8 36.7 44.3 52.9 47.2 40.7 30.8 27.5 26.8 26.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 11 18 27 38 .54 77 100 130 167 204
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 11 15 20 25 32 42 49 56 64 67
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 16 20 27 34 43 49 55 62 67
CO MtCO 235 270 335 422 497 538 589 653 746 859 968 1107
NMVOC Mt 33 37 49 63 72 73 75 82 91 102 113 128
NOx MtN 7 9 12 16 19 21 23 25 28 33 38 43
Emissions coirelated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by
a:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data).
b; C02 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f).
c; Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from АШ-А2 run.
d; Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-A2 run.