Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

534 Statistical Table
Scenario BlHigii-MESSAGE
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 .3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.9 14.0 28.0 44.1 60.5 81.5 99.6 112.8 123.9 131.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.3 13.7 23.5 36.7 51.2 65.4 84.4 99.6 112.8 123.9 131.7
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 24 15 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 33 42 49 52 39 26 21 13 10 1 0
Liquids 13 22 37 55 74 94 111 113 106 85 68 58
Gas 2 3 7 11 13 16 18 17 17 16 17 16
Electricity 4 6 11 21 35 49 63 83 96 104 107 106
Others 1 2 6 11 21 31 44 59 75 86 95 91
Total 62 82 114 155 198 234 264 293 306 302 288 271
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 30 41 52 64 64 63 46 32 23 24 34 29
Oil 15 26 40 57 72 74 77 69 66 48 31 23
Gas 3 5 14 24 39 55 68 74 68 52 44 34
Nuclear 0 1 1 3 7 11 16 19 22 24 27 32
Biomass 24 22 25 31 41 53 64 75 82 95 98 99
Other Renewables 1 3 5 12 25 44 75 124 159 183 183 169
Total 74 98 138 191 247 300 346 393 419 425 417 386
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.8
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 42.9 72.0 105.6 143.1 181.7 217.4 248.4 274.1 296.0 314.9
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433
Grasslands 608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 12 28 40 52 54 55 54 50 46
Forest 535 525 518 535 551 557 563 578 593 604 610 616
Others 583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.49 3.29 3.78 4.01 3.84 3.44 3.04 2.46 2.23 1.79
Other C02 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.17 -0.18 -0.10 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.18 -0.14 -0.10
Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.69 3.12 3.60 3.90 3.81 3.33 2.87 2.28 2.09 1.70
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 144 166 188 203 212 203 197 180 152 118
N20 total MtN20-N 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 30.2 31.5 29.6 23.3 16.1 11.5 9.4 6.3 4.0 3.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 338 432 543 645 764 792 800 775 773 751
NMVOC Mt 33 37 47 60 65 68 75 69 61 48 40 34
NOx MtN 7 9 12 16 18 20 19 17 14 12 10 9
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d; Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.