Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 487
Scenario A2-MiniCAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
OECD90
Population
Million
838 916 980 1030 1053 1116
1151 1197 1253 1319 1405 1493
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
16.3 20.5 24.5 28.3 29.6 34.2
na na na na na na
38.4 42.5 47.6 53.8 62.4 71.6
na na na na na na
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0
10 12 13 13 13 14
72 72 70 67 62 33
27 35 42 47 46 39
22 28 35 43 47 59
0 0 0 0 0 0
130 147 160 170 167 166
0 0 0 0 0 0
16 15 14 15 15 16
57 57 61 68 76 83
32 28 27 28 26 24
69 74 83 96 112 128
0 0 0 0 0 0
173 174 185 206 229 251
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
40 46 47 43 51 75
76 76 73 68 56 28
34 46 62 82 82 76
20 15 13 14 14 16
•>
0
4 4 5 8
94 112 131 152 194 236
18 10 5 5 4 3
68 63 62 63 52 40
18 18 19 22 27 32
11 14 16 18 22 26
Other Renewables
Total
12 11 10 10 10 12
182 196 209 221 218 216
14 18 24 31 42 53
223 236 259 292 341 390
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.6
0.1 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.2
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.3
3.4 4.5 5.7 7.1 9.0 10.8
3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8
4.0 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.0
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
2.8 33.0 66.7 103.1 140.5 178.5
218.5 260.7 305.1 352.5 405.0 464.7
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Lmd Use
Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
408 414 427 447 452 461
796 819 854 899 916 961
0 4 6 8 13 29
921 930 921 892 875 836
998 955 915 875 866 835
3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
457 440 429 424 419 414
984 979 978 981 989 996
41 50 56 60 72 85
829 877 906 916 894 872
811 777 754 742 749 756
3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
2.83 3.20 3.42 3.53 3.54 3.71
0.00 0.00 0.13 0.21 0.20 0.16
2.83 3.20 3.54 3.74 3.74 3.86
73 74 81 88 90 99
2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.3
22.7 17.0 16.2 8.3 7.5 6.6
19 57 107 103 111 116
18 13 14 14 14 14
23 23 25 28 29 29
3.99 4.17 4.51 4.98 5.68 6.44
0.14 0.14 0.07 -0.07 -0.09 -0.11
4.12 4.31 4.57 4.91 5.60 6.33
105 114 123 133 148 163
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2
5.8 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.5 7.3
125 130 135 142 151 160
14 13 11 13 15 17
28 26 20 12 14 16