Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

130 Scenario Driving Forces
Energy use in tlie industrial sector is dominated by the
industrialized countries, which accounted for 42% of world
industrial energy use in 1990. Countries in the REF, ASIA, and
ALM regions used 29%, 20%, and 9% of world industrial
energy, respectively, that year. The share of industrial sector
energy consumption within the industrialized countries
declined from 40% in 1971 to 33% in 1995, which partly
reflects the transition toward a less energy-intensive
manufacturing base. The industrial sector dominates in the
REF region, accounting for more than 50% of total primary
energy demand, a result of the long-term policy that
emphasized materials production and was promoted under
years of central planning. Average annual growth in industrial
energy use in this region was 2% between 1971 and 1990, but
dropped by an average of 7.3% per year between 1990 and
1995 (lEA, 1997a; lEA, 1997b; BP, 1997).
The agriculture sector used only 3% of global primary
commercial energy in 1990. Unlike the other sectors, the REF
region dominated agricultural energy use in 1990, using 34%
of the total, followed by the IND (30%), ASIA (26%), and
ALM (10%). Between 1971 and 1990, the average amiual
growth in primary energy used for agriculture was slower in the
industrialized countries (2.2% per year) than in the three other
regions, for which growth ranged between 4.5% and 4.8% per
year. Trends in agricultural primary energy use changed
significantly in the REF and ALM regions after 1990, with
REF consumption dropping to an average of 10.6% per year
and ALM consumption increasing to an average of 12.6% per
year by 1995.
Energy use in the industrial sector is dominated by the
production of a few major energy-intensive commodities, such
as steel, paper, cement, and chemicals. Rapidly industrializing
countries have higher demands for these infrastructure
materials and more mature markets have declining or stable
levels of consumption. Studies of material consumption in
industrialized countries show increases in the initial
development of society to a maximum consumption level,
which then remains constant or even decHnes as infrastructure
needs are met and material recycling increases. Absolute and
per capita consumptions of some materials appear to have
reached levels of stabilization in many industrialized countries,
although this is not true of all materials (e.g. paper). Expressed
as a function of unit GDP, material intensity generally declines
after reaching a maximum (WilUams et al., 1987; Wemick,
1996; WRI, 1997b; see also Section 3.3). Although the use of
all materials in developing countries will certainly grow, per
capita consumption may not reach that in the industrialized
countries, because more efficient processes and substitutes are
available.
Carbon intensities with respect to GDP (CO2 emissions as a
function of GDP) in the industrial sector have been relatively
stable in most countries except for those that are rapidly
industrializing (Houghton et ai, 1995). This trend results from
the changing economic structure, reduced energy intensity, and
reduced carbon intensity of the fuel mix. A shift toward less
carbon-intensive fuels took place between 1971 and 1992 in
most industrialized countries, as well as in South Korea (Aug
and Pandiyan, 1997; Schipper et al., 1997a). The industrial
sector fuel mix has become more carbon-intensive in some
developing countries, such as China and Mexico (Ang and
Pandiyan, 1997; Sheinbaum and Rodriguez, 1997), although a
trend away from coal to other fuels has also occurred in some
developing countries (Han and Chatterjee, 1997). The
contribution of fuel-mix changes to COj emissions reduction
has been .small in most industrialized countries (Golove and
Schipper, 1997; Schipper a/., 1997a).
Technical energy-intensity reductions of I to 2% per year are
possible in the industrial sector and have occurred in the past
(Ross and Steinmeyer, 1990). The annual change in energy
intensity in the industrial sector varied between -0.1% and
-6.6% per year for a variety of countries from the early 1970s
to the early 1990s. Generally, electricity intensity remained
constant and fuel intensity declined, which reflects the
increasing importance of electricity (lEA, 1997c).
3.4.2.3. Residential, Commercial, and Institutional Buildings
In the buildings sector, household expenditure levels, appliance
and equipment penetration levels, and the share of population
that lives in urban areas all affect energy use. In 1990,
residential, commercial, and institutional buildings consumed
almost 100 EJ of primary energy, about one-third of the total
global primary energy. Uncertainties persist with respect to
quantities and structure of non-commercial fuel use in
developing countries. Primary energy use in the buildings
sector worldwide grew at an average annual rate of 2.9%
between 1971 and 1990. Growth in buildings energy use varied
widely by region, ranging from 1.8% per yeai' in the IND
region to 7.1% per year in the ALM region. Growth in
commercial buildings was higher than growth in residential
buildings in all regions of the world, averaging 3.5% per year
globally. In 1990, the IND region used about 60% of global
building energy, followed by REF (22%), ASIA (10%), and
ALM (9%) countries, respectively. • Between 1990 and 1995,
growth in the use of primary energy in buildings slowed in all
regions except the industrialized countries, where buildings
primary energy use climbed at an average of 1.9% per year.
The greatest decline occuired in the REF region, where
buildings energy use declined by an average of 6.8% annually
between 1990 and 1995, dominated by a 7.2% per year average
drop in residential primary energy use. Growth in buildings
energy use in the other two regions ~ ASIA and ALM - slowed
during this period, but growth rates were still high, averaging
4.8% and 3.8%, respectively (BP, 1997; lEA, 1997a; lEA,
1997b).
Along with population size, key activity drivers of energy
demand in buildings are the rate of urbanization, number of
dwellings, per capita living area, persons per residence, and
commercial floor space. As populations become more
urbanized and areas develop electrification, the demand for
energy services such as refrigeration, lighting, heating, and