Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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536 Statistical Table Scenario BlHigh-MiniCAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Popuhition MiUion 5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) TriUion US$ 20.7 27.4 37.5 51.0 73.0 100.7 na na na na ua na 134.0 172.6 211.9 251.7 289.7 330.6 na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial SoUds Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 54 62 69 71 70 121 118 117 119 113 118 52 59 64 67 64 58 35 49 69 97 143 189 0 0 16 47 73 107 253 279 328 400 465 542 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 47 34 28 28 27 132 152 170 187 197 208 50 55 59 63 65 67 235 281 322 360 370 381 148 167 182 194 201 209 630 701 768 832 861 891 Primary Energy Coal OU Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 88 106 122 134 146 153 131 127 125 127 116 118 70 79 118 186 261 310 24 23 26 31 35 41 0 5 11 20 36 54 155 119 94 80 80 81 133 158 179 197 210 222 334 371 399 419 429 438 48 49 46 41 43 46 74 81 81 75 75 74 Other Renewables Total 24 24 28 33 41 68 336 365 430 532 635 743 113 169 224 278 265 253 857 946 1023 1089 1101 И14 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.5 5.0 6.4 0.1 1.4 2.7 3.9 5.1 6.3 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.8 8.6 8.0 9.2 10.3 11.2 12.0 12.8 7.5 9.1 10.8 12.6 14.7 16.7 11.7 15.4 19.2 23.3 27.5 31.8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 166.4 262.9 373.9 492.9 .14.2 736.9 859.7 979.5 1093.6 1201.1 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 1472 1467 1455 1435 1373 1284 1167 992 833 691 592 493 Grasslands 3209 3349 3591 3935 4239 4439 4537 4270 3979 3665 3479 3293 Energy Biomass 0 0 6 18 47 83 125 125 109 79 70 61 Forest 4173 4215 4144 3963 3720 3568 3506 3931 4339 4731 4805 4879 Others 4310 4134 3968 3813 3785 3790 3829 3847 3904 3999 4219 4438 Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5.99 6.90 7.81 9.15 10.49 11.28 1.11 1.07 1.01 1.34 1.22 0.82 7.10 7.97 8.82 10.48 11.70 12.09 310 323 352 398 443 489 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.5 11.0 12.9 70.9 69.0 73.4 75.6 67.0 56.1 1672 883 784 291 257 298 32 25 29 32 33 37 38 40 36 37 47 58 11.93 12.00 12.15 12.40 12.81 13.22 0.25 0.36 0.05 -0.66 -1.73 -2.79 12.18 12.35 12.21 11.74 11.08 10.43 521 524 529 536 558 579 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.8 18.2 19.7 42.8 29.8 21.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 338 337 333 327 315 299 42 47 45 43 46 45 68 71 62 46 43 43
Statistical Table 537 OECDTO"''"""^'"''''''' '""^ 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion f 1990 prices) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.1 30.1 32.0 38.8 na na na na na na 44.6 50.2 56.4 63.1 71.0 79.3 na na na na na na Final Energy i4on-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 12 10 7 6 4 72 66 57 45 37 20 27 33 34 32 29 20 22 25 27 26 25 24 0 0 12 37 43 61 130 136 141 146 140 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 2 2 2 2 16 17 18 19 20 21 14 15 16 17 18 19 23 26 29 32 33 34 73 75 77 80 83 85 131 135 141 150 155 160 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nucleai- Biomass lEJ 40 41 36 23 23 22 76 71 61 47 38 18 34 42 60 87 89 91 20 14 10 7 6 4 0 2 4 7 8 13 24 20 16 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 22 23 89 92 97 101 104 107 4 4 4 3 4 4 17 17 16 15 15 15 Other Renewables Total 12 11 11 10 10 10 182 181 180 181 173 159 13 17 21 26 26 25 160 165 171 177 183 188 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.5 08 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.3 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.3 97.4 128.3 156.1 181.0 204.9 228.5 251.3 272.7 292.5 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total 408 411 406 394 382 340 796 822 866 929 955 1014 0 0 4 13 17 30 921 931 923 897 881 850 998 959 924 890 888 888 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 303 258 219 187 156 125 1028 983 937 890 841 793 42 38 34 28 27 26 853 941 1017 1079 1110 1140 897 902 916 938 989 1039 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MiS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 2.83 3.20 3.15 2.99 2.85 2.54 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.18 0.15 0.03 2.83 3.20 3.26 3.17 3.01 2.57 73 74 82 91 96 П4 2.6 2.6 2.8 3,0 3.2 3.7 22.7 17.0 12.1 5.1 3.6 2.6 19 58 108 103 109 112 18 13 12 10 8 7 24 23 16 5 6 6 2.46 2.44 2,44 2,47 2.56 2.65 -0.07 -0.05 -0,11 -0,24 -0.50 -0.75 2.39 2.39 2,33 2.22 2.06 1.90 127 137 143 145 153 161 4.0 4.2 4,4 4.6 4.8 5.0 2.2 2,1 2,2 2,4 2.7 3.0 116 117 117 119 120 120 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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Page 500 and 501: 492 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 502 and 503: 494 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
Page 514 and 515: 506 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 550 and 551: 542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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Page 566 and 567: 558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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Page 584 and 585: 576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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Page 588 and 589: 580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591: 582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593: 584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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