Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

434 Statistical Table
Scenario AIG-MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
ASIA
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 13.5 27.2 44.9 65.3 95.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.3 13.5 22.8 36.2 52.2 70.0 96.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 24 15 П 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 37 52 63 71 74 56 37 28 17 3 2
Liquids 13 22 37 55 83 ¡16 162 ¡88 201 213 211 198
Gas 2 3 6 10 17 29 43 87 105 111 117 119
Electricity 4 7 14 27 48 79 118 167 212 253 285 298
Others 1 2 6 10 16 17 22 31 38 43 52 59
Total 62 87 125 174 239 318 404 510 585 638 668 676
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 30 48 67 90 124 ¡65 176 163 145 116 79 42
Oil 15 26 38 55 79 108 152 170 169 172 139 103
Gas 3 5 15 29 49 77 116 212' 287 332 381 429
Nuclear 0 1 2 4 8 14 23 36 56 87 121 143
Biomass 24 22 28 37 47 59 80 109 127 142 151 153
Other Renewables 1 3 5 12 21 30 42 56 69 81 91 96
Total 74 105 ¡56 226 327 453 588 746 853 929 962 965
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.3 7.0 8.6 10.0 11.2 12.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.5 8.2 9.9 ¡1.3
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 5.0 7.9 11.2 15.1
Cumttlative C02 hmissions GtC ).5 ¡93 44.3 78.0 124.8 191.0 277.7 381.2 496.0 615.6 7.33.8 845.2
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use »
Million ha
Cropland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 68 99 117 134 138 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 515 483 456 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2¡64 2164 2164 2164 2¡64 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 " GtC 1.15 1.78 2.73 3.94 5.65 7.77 9.58 11.13 11.96 12.16 11.61 10.70
Other C02 = GfC 0.37 0.26 0.22 -0.13 -0.12 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.10 -0.04 0.01
Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.95 3.81 5.54 7.72 9,60 11.09 11.87 12.07 11.57 10.71
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 151 182 226 242 254 238 216 198 183 162
N20 total " MtN20-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 31.2 36.0 40.5 47.4 42.2 31.7 24.2 19.7 17.1 15.¡
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 ¡53 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 345 425 5.54 701 928 1103 1227 1318 1390 1372
NMVOC Ml 33 37 46 54 63 77 ¡07 130 144 155 155 150
NOx MtN 7 9 12 16 23 31 40 49 53 55 54 54
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industriai processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker ran).
&. Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker ran.