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Regional Basic Professional Training Course in Korea

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❙ 587 ❙<br />

9. Probabilistic Safety Analysis<br />

been really validated by experience. Moreover important new developments on advanced<br />

methods are presently <strong>in</strong> progress. Nevertheless it is possible to identify <strong>in</strong> the different<br />

approaches what parameters are considered (type of human <strong>in</strong>tervention, shap<strong>in</strong>g factors,<br />

recoveries, dependencies, etc.).<br />

It is important to carry out a sufficiently complete qualitative analysis for identify<strong>in</strong>g the<br />

ma<strong>in</strong> shap<strong>in</strong>g factors and to use a quantitative model able to take these shap<strong>in</strong>g factors<br />

<strong>in</strong>to account.<br />

Examples of shap<strong>in</strong>g factors to be considered are:<br />

Time w<strong>in</strong>dow available for perform<strong>in</strong>g an action;<br />

Complexity (or difficulty) of the situation;<br />

Organization of the operat<strong>in</strong>g team;<br />

Status of the procedures;<br />

Efficiency of <strong>in</strong>dicators and of operator aids;<br />

Stress;<br />

<strong>Tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g</strong>.<br />

Moreover, as for category A actions, recoveries and dependencies have to be analysed<br />

and <strong>in</strong>troduced when necessary.<br />

Concern<strong>in</strong>g numerical results, it is important to identify if there are parameters on which<br />

the results are particularly sensible (a cut-off value, an anchor po<strong>in</strong>t, etc.). These sensible<br />

parameters have to be identified <strong>in</strong> order to carry out sensitivity studies. This po<strong>in</strong>t is<br />

particularly necessary <strong>in</strong> order to avoid cliff-edge effects and perhaps erroneous<br />

conclusions. Moreover, it is necessary to carry out a comparison of all the HRA numbers,<br />

<strong>in</strong> order to verify the rank<strong>in</strong>g of the values (a higher failure probability has to correspond

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